Plzen 1-0 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Plzen face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Plzen welcome Sparta Praha to Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 27 October 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Plzen — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Plzen have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Plzen are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Sparta Praha have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sparta Praha's away record over their last 10 away games: 9W 0D 1L (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.70 exceeds their overall 2.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Plzen) versus 2.20 (Sparta Praha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Plzen, 1 for Sparta Praha and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 May 2024, ended Plzen 1–1 Sparta Praha — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 56% versus Sparta Praha 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 61% | Sparta Praha 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.39 xG and Sparta Praha 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.233 / defence 0.721 | Sparta Praha attack 1.301 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.273. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.301, which lifts their away xG to 1.19. Plzen have a tight defence (rating 0.721), which is pulling Sparta Praha's projected output down. Data: built from Plzen's last 41 games and Sparta Praha's last 41.
Result probabilities: Plzen 38% | Draw 32% | Sparta Praha 29%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.61 | Draw 3.10 | Sparta Praha 3.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though recent form (Plzen's last 10 home games and Sparta Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plzen 40% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Praha 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 13 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 38% | Draw 32% | Sparta Praha 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Plzen 1.39 / Sparta Praha 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.233 / def 0.721 | Sparta Praha attack 1.301 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Plzen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sparta Praha xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plzen vs Sparta Praha FAQs
What time does Plzen vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Plzen vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Plzen 1 - 0 Sparta Praha.
Where is Plzen vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Sparta Praha part of?
Plzen vs Sparta Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 13) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 38% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Plzen and Sparta Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plzen vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.23) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plzen's last 41 games and Sparta Praha's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
38%
2.61
32%
3.10
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.58
1.19
Sparta Praha xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
7%
13.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plzen vs Sparta Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Plzen and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Plzen and 1.19 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen's recent record stands at 28W 10D 8L from 46 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Sparta Praha, meanwhile, have gone 35W 7D 4L across 46 games — 2.43 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plzen on 2.04 PPG, Sparta Praha on 2.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 16W 4D 3L from their last 23 home games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Praha's away record stands at 18W 2D 3L across their last 23 away games, a 2.43 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.28 scored and 0.91 conceded. Plzen's scoring rate against Sparta Praha's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 61%.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
Plzen (Home) vs Sparta Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plzen
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Plzen vs Sparta Praha Form FAQs
What form are Plzen and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 28W 10D 8L in their last 46 games (2.04 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 35W 7D 4L in their last 46 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.26 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.43 PPG.
Have Plzen or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Mar 2024, when Plzen won Plzen 4-0 Sparta Praha.
Plzen's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Plzen
4
Draws
2
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Plzen vs Sparta Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sparta Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Plzen have won 4, Sparta Praha have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Sparta Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Plzen 1-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Sparta Praha?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 52%, Sparta Praha 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Plzen and 65% for Sparta Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plzen vs Sparta Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plzen and Sparta Praha matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Plzen's games and 61% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Plzen and Sparta Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Plzen's matches and 65% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Plzen and Sparta Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Plzen's recent matches and 78% of Sparta Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Sparta Praha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Sparta Praha 1-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.39 xG and Sparta Praha 1.19 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sparta Praha landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.23 / defence 0.72 against Sparta Praha attack 1.30 / defence 0.82, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 38% | Draw 32% | Sparta Praha 29%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 61%, Sparta Praha 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 2.04 PPG, Sparta Praha 2.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.