Yunnan Yukun 5-0 Shenyang Urban – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Yunnan Yukun host Shenyang Urban at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 September 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Yunnan Yukun — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yunnan Yukun at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenyang Urban stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shenyang Urban, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenyang Urban away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Yunnan Yukun at 1.40 PPG versus Shenyang Urban's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Yunnan Yukun, 0 for Shenyang Urban and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Yunnan Yukun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Yunnan Yukun trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Shenyang Urban trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 75% and Shenyang Urban 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Yunnan Yukun 83% | Shenyang Urban 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 2.01 xG and Shenyang Urban 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.195 / defence 1.059 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.794 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.397. Data: 55 Yunnan Yukun games / 24 Shenyang Urban games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 56% | Draw 23% | Shenyang Urban 21%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Shenyang Urban 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Yunnan Yukun (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Yunnan Yukun as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 70% | Shenyang Urban 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Sep 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 56% | Draw 23% | Shenyang Urban 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Yunnan Yukun 2.01 / Shenyang Urban 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.195 / def 1.059 | Shenyang Urban attack 0.794 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Shenyang Urban xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban kicked off at 11:35 on Sunday 6 September 2026 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban?
Yunnan Yukun 5 - 0 Shenyang Urban.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 56% chance of winning, Shenyang Urban a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Shenyang Urban will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Shenyang Urban?
Record (1 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 1W | Draws 0 | Shenyang Urban 0W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Shenyang Urban in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Shenyang Urban (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Yunnan Yukun's attack rating (1.20) and Shenyang Urban's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shenyang Urban's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.36
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.18
1.17
Shenyang Urban xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
3%
35.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Shenyang Urban expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.17 for Shenyang Urban, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Yunnan Yukun's recent record stands at 9W 5D 10L from 24 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenyang Urban, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 13L across 24 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Shenyang Urban is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yunnan Yukun on 1.33 PPG, Shenyang Urban on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Yunnan Yukun have managed 6W 2D 3L from 11 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shenyang Urban's away record stands at 1W 3D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shenyang Urban's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Shenyang Urban are on 1.42 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
Shenyang Urban
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Shenyang Urban in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 9W 5D 10L in their last 24 games (1.33 PPG), while Shenyang Urban have gone 7W 4D 13L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Shenyang Urban away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.82 PPG; Shenyang Urban away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Yunnan Yukun
0
Draws
0
Shenyang Urban
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Shenyang Urban?
From 2 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, Shenyang Urban have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Shenyang Urban last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 5-0 Shenyang Urban.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Shenyang Urban?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Shenyang Urban are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yunnan Yukun 64%, Shenyang Urban 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Yunnan Yukun and 54% for Shenyang Urban. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenyang Urban in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Shenyang Urban away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Shenyang Urban?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Yunnan Yukun's recent matches and 46% of Shenyang Urban's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 54% of Shenyang Urban's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Shenyang Urban tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Shenyang Urban in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Yunnan Yukun run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Shenyang Urban.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Shenyang Urban 5-0 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 2.01 xG and Shenyang Urban 1.17 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shenyang Urban landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.20 / defence 1.06 against Shenyang Urban attack 0.79 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 56% | Draw 23% | Shenyang Urban 21%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 83%, Shenyang Urban 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Shenyang Urban's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yunnan Yukun 1.33 PPG, Shenyang Urban 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yunnan Yukun win broke the near-deadlock. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. Shenyang Urban (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.