Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nantong Zhiyun at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shenzhen Ruby FC host Nantong Zhiyun at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Shenzhen Ruby FC — All Games: 0W 1D 9L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.10 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 3.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 3W 1D 6L at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Shenzhen Ruby FC are significantly better at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Nantong Zhiyun have recorded 0W 7D 3L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 0W 6D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Nantong Zhiyun — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.70 vs 0.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 0 for Nantong Zhiyun and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shenzhen Ruby FC trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Nantong Zhiyun trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shenzhen Ruby FC 59% and Nantong Zhiyun 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 77% | Nantong Zhiyun 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.12 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.837 / defence 1.443 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.751 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.214. Data: 55 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 22 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Draw 31% | Nantong Zhiyun 39%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Nantong Zhiyun 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nantong Zhiyun as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nantong Zhiyun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shenzhen Ruby FC 70% | Nantong Zhiyun 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Draw 31% | Nantong Zhiyun 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.12 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.837 / def 1.443 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.751 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Nantong Zhiyun (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Nantong Zhiyun xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 30% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Nantong Zhiyun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun?
Record (1 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W | Draws 1 | Nantong Zhiyun 0W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 3.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shenzhen Ruby FC's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Nantong Zhiyun's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Nantong Zhiyun's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantong Zhiyun Win
30%
3.34
31%
3.27
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.44
1.32
Nantong Zhiyun xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.46
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.32 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Shenzhen Ruby FC have picked up 0.55 PPG on a 3W 3D 16L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nantong Zhiyun's form line: 2W 10D 10L from 22 games, 0.73 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shenzhen Ruby FC on 0.55 PPG, Nantong Zhiyun on 0.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (3W 1D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.55 PPG overall — Shenzhen Ruby FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 2.59 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.77 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nantong Zhiyun in 64%.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 3W 3D 16L in their last 22 games (0.55 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 2W 10D 10L in their last 22 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1
Draws
1
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 2 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, Nantong Zhiyun have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun?
Nantong Zhiyun have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shenzhen Ruby FC at 70%, Nantong Zhiyun at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 10% (Nantong Zhiyun).
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 30% of games; Nantong Zhiyun in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Nantong Zhiyun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's games and 70% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 10% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nantong Zhiyun edge out Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantong Zhiyun beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-1 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.12 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.32 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.44 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.75 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% | Draw 31% | Nantong Zhiyun 39%, with Nantong Zhiyun to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 77%, Nantong Zhiyun 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.55 PPG, Nantong Zhiyun 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nantong Zhiyun win broke the near-deadlock. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.