Nantong Zhiyun 0-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beijing Guoan make the trip to Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Nantong Zhiyun in Super League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Nantong Zhiyun's overall Super League record this term: 0W 7D 3L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantong Zhiyun's home record at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Beijing Guoan are 0.80 PPG clear of Nantong Zhiyun in recent Super League fixtures (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Nantong Zhiyun have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Beijing Guoan in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Nantong Zhiyun 0W, Beijing Guoan 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Nantong Zhiyun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nantong Zhiyun 67% and Beijing Guoan 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nantong Zhiyun 29% | Beijing Guoan 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 0.99 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.653 / defence 1.228 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.887 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.238. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Nantong Zhiyun games / 55 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 26% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 43%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Beijing Guoan 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Nantong Zhiyun 60% | Beijing Guoan 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 26% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 0.99 / Beijing Guoan 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.653 / def 1.228 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.887 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Beijing Guoan xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan?
Nantong Zhiyun 0 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 26% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan?
Record (1 meetings): Nantong Zhiyun 0W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 1W.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nantong Zhiyun's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (0.89x) against Nantong Zhiyun's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 21/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
26%
3.90
31%
3.23
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.34
1.35
Beijing Guoan xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
7%
15.01
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.0 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.35 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nantong Zhiyun come into this having played 21 games, going 2W 10D 9L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beijing Guoan sit at 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Nantong Zhiyun's home form reads 2W 4D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Beijing Guoan have taken 1.00 points per game from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beijing Guoan's season.
Attack vs Defence
Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.67 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nantong Zhiyun have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Beijing Guoan in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Nantong Zhiyun have gone 2W 10D 9L in their last 21 games (0.76 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 8W 8D 5L in their last 21 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantong Zhiyun at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Nantong Zhiyun's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantong Zhiyun at home: 1.00 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Nantong Zhiyun or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantong Zhiyun have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 5-2 on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nantong Zhiyun
0
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 1-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantong Zhiyun 60%, Beijing Guoan 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Nantong Zhiyun) and 50% (Beijing Guoan).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantong Zhiyun play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Nantong Zhiyun's games and 60% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent games and 50% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Nantong Zhiyun have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Nantong Zhiyun 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Nantong Zhiyun 0-1 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 0.99 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.35 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nantong Zhiyun fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.65 / defence 1.23 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.89 / defence 0.97, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 26% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 43%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantong Zhiyun 29%, Beijing Guoan 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.76. Form held, and they took the win. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.