Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shenzhen Ruby FC make the trip to Puwan Stadium to face Dalian Aerbin in Super League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Dalian Aerbin (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dalian Aerbin have posted 2W 6D 2L at Puwan Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's overall Super League record this term: 0W 1D 9L from 10 games (0.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 3.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Dalian Aerbin. A 0.80 PPG lead over Shenzhen Ruby FC (0.90 vs 0.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dalian Aerbin lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Shenzhen Ruby FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Dalian Aerbin half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Shenzhen Ruby FC half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 61% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 54% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 2.15 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.812 / defence 0.911 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.720 / defence 1.706. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.238. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.706 — this is suppressing Dalian Aerbin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Dalian Aerbin games / 54 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 67% | Draw 21% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 12%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Aerbin (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Aerbin are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Aerbin 70% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 67% | Draw 21% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 50% | xG Dalian Aerbin 2.15 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.812 / def 0.911 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.720 / def 1.706 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
50%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Dalian Aerbin 2 - 1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 67% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (3 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 2W | Draws 0 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 3.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 0.81x the league average against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence at 1.71x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack (0.72x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.67
12%
8.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.96
0.81
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
8.56
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
12%
8.58
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
1%
73.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 0.81 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 15W 17D 22L from 54 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenzhen Ruby FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 36L across 54 games — 0.78 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Dalian Aerbin against 0.78 for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 9W 11D 7L from 27 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record stands at 4W 4D 19L across 27 trips, a 0.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Aerbin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 0.89 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dalian Aerbin have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 15W 17D 22L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 12W 6D 36L in their last 54 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.41 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dalian Aerbin won 5-1 on 1 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Dalian Aerbin
0
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 3, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Dalian Aerbin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 70%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Dalian Aerbin) and 67% (Shenzhen Ruby FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 48% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Dalian Aerbin's matches and 67% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Aerbin edge out Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 2.15 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.81 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.71, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 67% | Draw 21% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 12%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 54%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 1.15 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Aerbin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.