Dalian Aerbin 1-2 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Dalian Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 14 December 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Form
Dalian Aerbin (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Dalian Aerbin at Dalian Sports Center this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Super League this season, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Dalian Aerbin 0W, Wuhan Three Towns 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2022, ended 0–4 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 63% versus Wuhan Three Towns 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dalian Aerbin 57% | Wuhan Three Towns 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 0.96 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.057 / defence 0.999 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.404 / defence 0.658. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.411. Wuhan Three Towns's defence strength of 0.658 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack strength of 1.404 — the away xG of 1.98 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Dalian Aerbin games / 30 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 17% | Draw 23% | Wuhan Three Towns 60%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 5.88 | Draw 4.35 | Wuhan Three Towns 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Aerbin 70% | Wuhan Three Towns 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Dec 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 17% | Draw 23% | Wuhan Three Towns 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Dalian Aerbin 0.96 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.057 / def 0.999 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.404 / def 0.658 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Wuhan Three Towns xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 07:00 on Wednesday 14 December 2022 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Dalian Aerbin 1 - 2 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 17% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 60% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (1 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 0W | Draws 0 | Wuhan Three Towns 1W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dalian Aerbin's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Three Towns's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (1.40x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from 44/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
17%
6.03
23%
4.30
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.94
1.98
Wuhan Three Towns xG
6.03
17%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
14%
7.24
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
2%
43.64
23%
4.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.5 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.98 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 12W 9D 9L from 30 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 22W 3D 5L across 30 games — 2.30 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wuhan Three Towns by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dalian Aerbin heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 6W 5D 4L from 15 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 12W 2D 1L across 15 trips, a 2.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 2.80 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dalian Aerbin have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 12W 9D 9L in their last 30 games (1.50 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 22W 3D 5L in their last 30 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.53 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.53 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won 4-0 on 25 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dalian Aerbin
1
Draws
3
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 1-3 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 73%, Wuhan Three Towns 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Dalian Aerbin and 67% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 47% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Dalian Aerbin's matches and 67% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wuhan Three Towns edge out Dalian Aerbin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Dalian Aerbin 1-2 at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 31, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 0.96 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.98 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.40 / defence 0.66, drawn from 44/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 17% | Draw 23% | Wuhan Three Towns 60%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 57%, Wuhan Three Towns 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.