Hebei Zhongji 2-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shenzhen Ruby FC (79%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hebei Zhongji face Shenzhen Ruby FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shenzhen Ruby FC make the trip to Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 to face Hebei Zhongji in Super League, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Thursday 15 December 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hebei Zhongji's overall Super League record this term: 0W 0D 10L from 10 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 4.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 4.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hebei Zhongji have posted 0W 0D 10L at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 — 0.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 4.60 conceded per game.
Shenzhen Ruby FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shenzhen Ruby FC away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shenzhen Ruby FC are 1.00 PPG clear of Hebei Zhongji in recent Super League fixtures (1.00 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Shenzhen Ruby FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Shenzhen Ruby FC winning.
It is worth noting that Shenzhen Ruby FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Hebei Zhongji — key trading statistics (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 53% of games.
Shenzhen Ruby FC — key trading statistics (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 39% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 61% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 0.95 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.586 / defence 2.296 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.945 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.416. Hebei Zhongji's attack strength of 0.586 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Hebei Zhongji games / 43 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 8% | Draw 14% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 79%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 12.50 | Draw 7.14 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.27. The model has a clear lean to Shenzhen Ruby FC (79%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shenzhen Ruby FC are the pick at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hebei Zhongji 40% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Dec 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 8% | Draw 14% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 79% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 59% | xG Hebei Zhongji 0.95 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.07 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.586 / def 2.296 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.945 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Shenzhen Ruby FC (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
3.07
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
59%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 12:00 on Thursday 15 December 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Hebei Zhongji 2 - 0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 8% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 79% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Shenzhen Ruby FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (3 meetings): Hebei Zhongji 0W | Draws 0 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 3W.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 4.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hebei Zhongji's attack rating (0.59) and Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack (0.94x) against Hebei Zhongji's defence (2.30x) — and the away total comes out at 3.07.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-3 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (8.4%), 1-3 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
8%
12.99
14%
7.29
79%
1.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 3
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
1 – 3
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
4.03
3.07
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
12.99
8%
Home win
7.29
14%
Draw
1.27
79%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
5%
21.59
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
0%
–
30%
3.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 4.1 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.9 |
| 2 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 3.07 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hebei Zhongji come into this having played 51 games, going 7W 6D 38L for 0.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Shenzhen Ruby FC sit at 1.22 PPG from 51 outings (18W 8D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Shenzhen Ruby FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Hebei Zhongji's home form reads 5W 2D 17L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have taken 1.29 points per game from 24 outings (9W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Current Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 6D 38L in their last 51 games (0.53 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 18W 8D 25L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 0.71 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shenzhen Ruby FC won 3-0 on 19 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hebei Zhongji have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
3
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 1, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 December 2022, when Hebei Zhongji 2-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 38%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Hebei Zhongji and 67% for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji have failed to score in 54% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 67% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Hebei Zhongji's matches and 67% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hebei Zhongji cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hebei Zhongji beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-0 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2, Regular Season - 31, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 0.95 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.07 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hebei Zhongji beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shenzhen Ruby FC landed 3.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.59 / defence 2.30 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.19, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 8% | Draw 14% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 79%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 79%. Instead the game produced a Hebei Zhongji win, an outcome the model had rated at just 8% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 61%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shenzhen Ruby FC arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.53. Form was overturned, with Hebei Zhongji winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.