Chengdu Better City 3-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu meet at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park in Super League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chengdu Better City's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Chengdu Better City's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.45 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.226 / defence 0.652 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.930 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.356. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.652 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Chengdu Better City games / 6 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 52% | Draw 28% | Sichuan Jiuniu 21%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Sichuan Jiuniu 4.76. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 52% | Draw 28% | Sichuan Jiuniu 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.45 / Sichuan Jiuniu 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.226 / def 0.652 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.930 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Chengdu Better City 3 - 1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 52% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Chengdu Better City home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Sichuan Jiuniu's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.93x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
52%
1.94
28%
3.63
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.27
0.82
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
5%
20.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.82 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Pre-Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Chengdu Better City have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won 5-0 on 25 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Chengdu Better City
1
Draws
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 6 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 5, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 2-3 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chengdu Better City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-1 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.45 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.82 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.23 / defence 0.65 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.93 / defence 0.86, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 52% | Draw 28% | Sichuan Jiuniu 21%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.