Chengdu Better City 0-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park plays host to Chengdu Better City versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chengdu Better City's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Chengdu Better City at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shandong Luneng have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Chengdu Better City, 2.30 for Shandong Luneng — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Chengdu Better City 2W, Shandong Luneng 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Chengdu Better City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Chengdu Better City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 48% versus Shandong Luneng 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 50% | Shandong Luneng 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.99 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.368 / defence 0.661 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.147 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.387. Chengdu Better City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.368 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.661 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Chengdu Better City games / 37 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 59% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 19%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Shandong Luneng 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chengdu Better City 30% | Shandong Luneng 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 59% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.99 / Shandong Luneng 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.368 / def 0.661 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.147 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Shandong Luneng xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng?
Chengdu Better City 0 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 59% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng?
Record (4 meetings): Chengdu Better City 2W | Draws 1 | Shandong Luneng 1W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Chengdu Better City's attack at 1.37x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (1.15x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.68
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.05
1.05
Shandong Luneng xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
3%
37.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.05 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Chengdu Better City have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 33W 19D 12L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Shandong Luneng's form line: 41W 13D 10L from 64 games, 2.12 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.84 PPG for Chengdu Better City against 2.12 for Shandong Luneng. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Chengdu Better City have posted 2.00 PPG from 32 outings (18W 10D 4L).
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 14W 10D 8L from 32 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Attack vs Defence
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.28 scored and 0.84 conceded. Shandong Luneng's attacking output running into Chengdu Better City's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Shandong Luneng in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 33W 19D 12L in their last 64 games (1.84 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 41W 13D 10L in their last 64 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.00 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Chengdu Better City go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 3-0 on 17 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Chengdu Better City
1
Draws
3
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng?
From 9 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 5, Shandong Luneng have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Chengdu Better City 1-0 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 53%, Shandong Luneng 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Chengdu Better City) and 53% (Shandong Luneng). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Shandong Luneng in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Chengdu Better City's games and 59% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 53% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shandong Luneng defy the odds to beat Chengdu Better City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Chengdu Better City 0-1 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.99 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.05 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chengdu Better City fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.37 / defence 0.66 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.15 / defence 1.06, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 59% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 19%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Shandong Luneng win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 50%, Shandong Luneng 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.84 PPG, Shandong Luneng 2.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.