Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Wuhan Three Towns (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Wuhan Three Towns face Changchun Yatai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Changchun Yatai travel to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium to take on Wuhan Three Towns. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Wuhan Three Towns at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Wuhan Three Towns are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 1 for Changchun Yatai and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 4–3 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 58% versus Changchun Yatai 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 64% | Changchun Yatai 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.44 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.918 / defence 1.107 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.871 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.359. Data: 36 Wuhan Three Towns games / 36 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 40% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 34%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Changchun Yatai 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Changchun Yatai 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 40% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.44 / Changchun Yatai 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.918 / def 1.107 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.871 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Changchun Yatai xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Wuhan Three Towns 0 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 40% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai?
Record (4 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 3W | Draws 0 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
40%
2.51
26%
3.83
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.75
1.31
Changchun Yatai xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
8%
12.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.31 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Three Towns come into this having played 64 games, going 39W 12D 13L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.30 PPG from 64 outings (21W 20D 23L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Wuhan Three Towns carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Wuhan Three Towns's home form reads 19W 6D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.25 points per game from 32 outings (10W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.45 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 39W 12D 13L in their last 64 games (2.02 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 20D 23L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.97 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Wuhan Three Towns
3
Draws
2
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai?
From 8 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, Changchun Yatai have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 53%, Changchun Yatai 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 56% (Changchun Yatai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 53% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 56% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wuhan Three Towns's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai finished level at 0-0 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.44 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.31 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Changchun Yatai landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.92 / defence 1.11 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.87 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 40% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 34%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 64%, Changchun Yatai 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.