Chengdu Better City 3-0 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chengdu Better City face Hangzhou Greentown.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park to face Chengdu Better City in Super League (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Wednesday 10 April 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Current Form
Chengdu Better City's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Chengdu Better City's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Chengdu Better City against 2.40 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Chengdu Better City, 1 for Hangzhou Greentown and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Jul 2023, ended Chengdu Better City 1–2 Hangzhou Greentown — a Hangzhou Greentown win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 49% versus Hangzhou Greentown 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 51% | Hangzhou Greentown 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.34 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.122 / defence 0.713 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.118 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.439. Chengdu Better City have a tight defence (rating 0.713), which is pulling Hangzhou Greentown's projected output down. Data: built from Chengdu Better City's last 34 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 34.
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 41% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 32%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 2.43 | Draw 3.72 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though recent form (Chengdu Better City's last 10 home games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chengdu Better City 30% (last 10 home games) | Hangzhou Greentown 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, matchday 5 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 April 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 41% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Chengdu Better City 1.34 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.122 / def 0.713 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.118 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Hangzhou Greentown xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown FAQs
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Wednesday 10 April 2024 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Chengdu Better City 3 - 0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Super League fixture (matchday 5) (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 41% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.12x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Chengdu Better City's last 34 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.72
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.49
1.15
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
8%
12.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.15 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 63 games, going 33W 19D 11L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.86 PPG from 63 outings (33W 18D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.87 PPG for Chengdu Better City against 1.86 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 18W 10D 4L across their last 32 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 1.69 points per game from their last 32 away games (14W 12D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.87 scored and 0.98 conceded. Hangzhou Greentown's attacking output running into Chengdu Better City's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Chengdu Better City (Home) vs Hangzhou Greentown (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown Form FAQs
What form are Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 33W 19D 11L in their last 63 games (1.87 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 33W 18D 12L in their last 63 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.00 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Chengdu Better City have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won Chengdu Better City 4-0 Hangzhou Greentown on 25 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Chengdu Better City
3
Draws
1
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Chengdu Better City have won 6, Hangzhou Greentown have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Hangzhou Greentown 2-3 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 53%, Hangzhou Greentown 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Chengdu Better City and 59% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Chengdu Better City's games and 72% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 59% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 75% of Hangzhou Greentown's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.34 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.15 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hangzhou Greentown landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.12 / defence 0.71 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.12 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 41% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 32%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 51%, Hangzhou Greentown 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.87 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chengdu Better City win broke the near-deadlock. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.