Qingdao Jonoon 2-0 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon host Hangzhou Greentown at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 April 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Qingdao Jonoon's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hangzhou Greentown — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Qingdao Jonoon have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 43% versus Hangzhou Greentown 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Hangzhou Greentown 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.13 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.793 / defence 0.989 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.031 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.343. Qingdao Jonoon's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Qingdao Jonoon games / 35 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 31% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 42%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 31% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.13 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.793 / def 0.989 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.031 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Hangzhou Greentown xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Qingdao Jonoon 2 - 0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 31% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (2 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 2 | Hangzhou Greentown 0W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
31%
3.25
27%
3.71
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.50
1.37
Hangzhou Greentown xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.3 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.37 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Jonoon come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 7D 16L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.83 PPG from 30 outings (16W 7D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Qingdao Jonoon's home form reads 7W 3D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 1.73 points per game from 15 outings (7W 5D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.90 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 7W 7D 16L in their last 30 games (0.93 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 16W 7D 7L in their last 30 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Hangzhou Greentown's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.60 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hangzhou Greentown go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jun 2025, when Hangzhou Greentown won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
3
Draws
4
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 14 July 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Hangzhou Greentown 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Qingdao Jonoon and 80% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Jonoon cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-0 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.13 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.37 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hangzhou Greentown landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.79 / defence 0.99 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.03 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 31% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 42%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Qingdao Jonoon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Hangzhou Greentown 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Qingdao Jonoon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.