Beijing Guoan 1-2 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu make the trip to Workers' Stadium to face Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Tuesday 9 April 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Workers' Stadium, Beijing Guoan have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.35 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.218 / defence 1.029 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.850 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.385. Data: 34 Beijing Guoan games / 4 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 40% | Draw 27% | Sichuan Jiuniu 33%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Sichuan Jiuniu 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Apr 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 40% | Draw 27% | Sichuan Jiuniu 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.35 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.218 / def 1.029 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.850 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 9 April 2024 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 40% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Beijing Guoan home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.22) and Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.85x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.77
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.56
1.21
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
9%
11.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.21 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Pre-Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 4-0 on 7 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
0
Draws
3
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 6 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 4-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Sichuan Jiuniu defy the odds to beat Beijing Guoan 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Beijing Guoan 1-2 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.35 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.21 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.22 / defence 1.03 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.85 / defence 0.93, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 40% | Draw 27% | Sichuan Jiuniu 33%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sichuan Jiuniu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.