York United 0-3 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates York United at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
York United host Forge at York Lions Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 April 2024 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
York United's home record at York Lions Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Forge have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Forge are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Forge trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 49% versus Forge 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 53% | Forge 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.47 xG and Forge 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.922 / defence 1.077 | Forge attack 1.049 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 0.913. Data: 29 York United games / 29 Forge games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: York United 47% | Draw 27% | Forge 26%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Forge 3.85. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, York United are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Forge (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: York United 50% | Forge 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 47% | Draw 27% | Forge 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG York United 1.47 / Forge 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.922 / def 1.077 | Forge attack 1.049 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.678 / away 0.913 • Poisson stance: York United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Forge xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Forge kick off?
York United vs Forge kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Forge?
York United 0 - 3 Forge.
Where is York United vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Forge part of?
York United vs Forge is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives York United a 47% chance of winning, Forge a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both York United and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Forge in?
York United (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Forge (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
York United's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Forge's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus York United's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.71
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
York United xG
Total xG
2.50
1.03
Forge xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
6%
16.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are York United and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for York United and 1.03 for Forge, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, York United have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 20W 12D 25L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Forge's form line: 28W 14D 15L from 57 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Venue Form
On home soil, York United have posted 1.14 PPG from 28 outings (9W 5D 14L).
On the road, Forge have gone 14W 6D 8L from 28 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.56 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Forge in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Current Season
Forge
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Forge in coming into this match?
York United have gone 20W 12D 25L in their last 57 games (1.26 PPG), while Forge have gone 28W 14D 15L in their last 57 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.14 PPG; Forge away: 1.71 PPG.
Have York United or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Forge in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Forge go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Forge specifically: 0W 2D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
York United
3
Draws
7
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 0, Forge have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did York United and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between York United and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 43%, Forge 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (York United) and 43% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Forge in 43%; York United have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of York United's recent matches and 39% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of York United's recent games and 43% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Forge tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Forge in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Forge run riot with a 0-3 hammering of York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat York United 0-3 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.47 xG and Forge 1.03 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. York United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Forge outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Forge attack 1.05 / defence 0.95, drawn from 29/29 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 47% | Draw 27% | Forge 26%, with York United to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Forge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 53%, Forge 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Forge's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Forge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.