Atlético Ottawa 1-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 54%, yet in-form Cavalry FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC meet at TD Place Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Atlético Ottawa at TD Place Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at TD Place Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Atlético Ottawa are significantly better at TD Place Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cavalry FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Cavalry FC arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 48% versus Cavalry FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 39% | Cavalry FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.66 xG and Cavalry FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.985 / defence 1.011 | Cavalry FC attack 1.058 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 0.911. Data: 29 Atlético Ottawa games / 29 Cavalry FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 54% | Draw 24% | Cavalry FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Cavalry FC 4.55. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cavalry FC (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Atlético Ottawa 40% | Cavalry FC 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 54% | Draw 24% | Cavalry FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.66 / Cavalry FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.985 / def 1.011 | Cavalry FC attack 1.058 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.721 / away 0.911 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cavalry FC xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Atlético Ottawa 1 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 54% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atlético Ottawa's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.06x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
54%
1.87
24%
4.10
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.64
0.97
Cavalry FC xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
4%
23.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 0.97 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 24W 17D 18L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Cavalry FC's form line: 31W 12D 16L from 59 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.78 for Cavalry FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 1.25 PPG from 28 outings (8W 11D 9L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 10W 8D 10L from 28 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cavalry FC's season.
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.51 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 24W 17D 18L in their last 59 games (1.51 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 31W 12D 16L in their last 59 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.25 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Cavalry FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atlético Ottawa
3
Draws
3
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, Cavalry FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 0-3 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 50%, Cavalry FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Atlético Ottawa) and 54% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 57% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 54% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.66 xG and Cavalry FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Cavalry FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 29/29 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 54% | Draw 24% | Cavalry FC 22%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 39%, Cavalry FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.51 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.