Forge 2-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Forge host Cavalry FC at Tim Hortons Field in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Forge — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Forge's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Tim Hortons Field this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Forge 1.80 PPG, Cavalry FC 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Forge register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cavalry FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Forge in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 48% versus Cavalry FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 48% | Cavalry FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.35 xG and Cavalry FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.001 / defence 0.989 | Cavalry FC attack 1.022 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.273. Data: 28 Forge games / 28 Cavalry FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Forge 39% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Forge 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Cavalry FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Forge 60% | Cavalry FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 39% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Forge 1.35 / Cavalry FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.001 / def 0.989 | Cavalry FC attack 1.022 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Forge (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Cavalry FC xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Forge vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Forge 2 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Forge vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Cavalry FC part of?
Forge vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 39% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Forge and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in?
Forge (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Forge's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
39%
2.60
26%
3.83
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Forge xG
Total xG
2.64
1.29
Cavalry FC xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Forge and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Forge and 1.29 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Forge come into this having played 61 games, going 29W 15D 17L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Cavalry FC sit at 1.74 PPG from 61 outings (31W 13D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forge on 1.67 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Forge's home form reads 14W 9D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Cavalry FC have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cavalry FC's season.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.49 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 29W 15D 17L in their last 61 games (1.67 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 31W 13D 17L in their last 61 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Cavalry FC away?
Forge's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.70 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Forge or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Forge
3
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 3, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Forge 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 57%, Cavalry FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Forge) and 53% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Forge's games and 57% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Forge vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Forge's recent games and 53% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out Cavalry FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Cavalry FC 2-1 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 1, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.35 xG and Cavalry FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Cavalry FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.96, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 39% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 35%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 48%, Cavalry FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forge 1.67 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.