Juventude 3-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Juventude face Gremio.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gremio make the trip to Estádio Alfredo Jaconi to face Juventude in Serie A (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Sunday 7 July 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Juventude's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Juventude at home: 4W 2D 0L from their last 6 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Juventude are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Gremio (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Gremio away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2021, ended Juventude 2–3 Gremio — a Gremio win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Juventude — key trading statistics (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Gremio — key trading statistics (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 69% versus Gremio 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 38% | Gremio 38%). Note also that Gremio surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Juventude recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.43 xG and Gremio 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.994 / defence 0.849 | Gremio attack 0.859 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.076. Data: built from Juventude's last 13 games and Gremio's last 50.
Result probabilities: Juventude 50% | Draw 31% | Gremio 19%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 1.98 | Draw 3.23 | Gremio 5.38. Juventude hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventude are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Juventude 50% (last 6 home games) | Gremio 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, matchday 15 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 7 July 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 50% | Draw 31% | Gremio 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Juventude 1.43 / Gremio 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.994 / def 0.849 | Gremio attack 0.859 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Juventude (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Gremio xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juventude vs Gremio FAQs
What time does Juventude vs Gremio kick off?
Juventude vs Gremio kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Gremio?
Juventude 3 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Juventude vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Gremio part of?
Juventude vs Gremio is a Serie A fixture (matchday 15) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 50% chance of winning, Gremio a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Juventude and Gremio will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Juventude vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Juventude's attack rating (0.99) and Gremio's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.86x) against Juventude's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Juventude's last 13 games and Gremio's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
50%
1.98
31%
3.23
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.22
0.79
Gremio xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
4%
22.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juventude vs Gremio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Juventude and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Juventude and 0.79 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 4W 4D 5L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Gremio's form line: 4W 2D 7L from 13 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Juventude against 1.08 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Juventude have posted 2.33 PPG from their last 6 home games (4W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gremio have gone 1W 1D 4L from their last 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventude are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Gremio
Blended
Juventude (Home) vs Gremio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juventude
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Juventude vs Gremio Form FAQs
What form are Juventude and Gremio in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Gremio have gone 4W 2D 7L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Gremio away?
Juventude's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 2.33 PPG; Gremio away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 26 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Gremio have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventude won Juventude 3-0 Gremio on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Juventude
1
Draws
3
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Juventude vs Gremio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Gremio?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Juventude have won 2, Gremio have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Juventude and Gremio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2025: Gremio 3-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 50%, Gremio 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Juventude and 50% for Gremio.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Gremio in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Juventude vs Gremio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Juventude and Gremio matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Juventude's games and 67% of Gremio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Juventude and Gremio matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Juventude's recent games and 50% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Gremio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Juventude's recent matches and 83% of Gremio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Juventude run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Gremio 3-0 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.43 xG and Gremio 0.79 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Juventude beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.99 / defence 0.85 against Gremio attack 0.86 / defence 1.05, drawn from 13/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 50% | Draw 31% | Gremio 19%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 38%, Gremio 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Gremio's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.23 PPG, Gremio 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventude win broke the near-deadlock. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.