Atletico Goianiense 1-2 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense meet at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 July 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Atletico Goianiense (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Goianiense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Atletico Goianiense have gone 0W 2D 4L this season (6 games, 0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Antônio Accioly this season.
Atletico Paranaense have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Paranaense away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Atletico Paranaense are 0.50 PPG clear of Atletico Goianiense in recent Serie A fixtures (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Atletico Paranaense, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Atletico Paranaense have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Atletico Goianiense — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Atletico Paranaense — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Goianiense 57% versus Atletico Paranaense 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico Goianiense 43% | Atletico Paranaense 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 0.79 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.721 / defence 1.411 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.848 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.070. Atletico Goianiense's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Atletico Paranaense's defence strength of 0.789 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 14 Atletico Goianiense games / 52 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 21% | Draw 33% | Atletico Paranaense 46%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 4.76 | Draw 3.03 | Atletico Paranaense 2.17. Atletico Paranaense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Paranaense are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Goianiense 67% | Atletico Paranaense 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 21% | Draw 33% | Atletico Paranaense 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Atletico Goianiense 0.79 / Atletico Paranaense 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.721 / def 1.411 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.848 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Atletico Paranaense xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Goianiense 1 - 2 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 21% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 46% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (4 meetings): Atletico Goianiense 0W | Draws 1 | Atletico Paranaense 3W.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atletico Goianiense's attack at 0.72x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (0.85x) against Atletico Goianiense's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
21%
4.75
33%
3.03
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
2.07
1.28
Atletico Paranaense xG
4.75
21%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
6%
17.08
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 16.2 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.28 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atletico Goianiense's recent record stands at 2W 5D 7L from 14 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Atletico Goianiense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Paranaense, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 4L across 14 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atletico Paranaense by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atletico Goianiense heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Atletico Goianiense have managed 0W 2D 4L from 6 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.79 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Atletico Paranaense's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atletico Goianiense are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.21 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Paranaense in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Atletico Goianiense have gone 2W 5D 7L in their last 14 games (0.79 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 6W 4D 4L in their last 14 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Goianiense at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Atletico Paranaense's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Goianiense at home: 0.33 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Atletico Goianiense or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Atletico Paranaense have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Paranaense won 4-1 on 20 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Goianiense have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Paranaense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Atletico Goianiense
1
Draws
5
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense?
From 6 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, Atletico Paranaense have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2024, when Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atletico Goianiense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Goianiense 67%, Atletico Paranaense 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Atletico Goianiense and 0% for Atletico Paranaense.
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense in 33%; Atletico Goianiense have failed to score in 33% of games; Atletico Paranaense in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Goianiense play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Atletico Goianiense's recent matches and 33% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Atletico Goianiense's recent games and 0% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Goianiense and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Atletico Goianiense have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Paranaense edge out Atletico Goianiense 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Atletico Goianiense 1-2 at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 0.79 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.28 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.72 / defence 1.41 against Atletico Paranaense attack 0.85 / defence 0.79, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 21% | Draw 33% | Atletico Paranaense 46%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Goianiense 43%, Atletico Paranaense 21%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Paranaense arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.