Palmeiras 2-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palmeiras host Bahia at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 July 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Palmeiras — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palmeiras have posted 7W 1D 2L at Allianz Parque — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palmeiras 2.20 PPG, Bahia 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Palmeiras, 1 for Bahia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Palmeiras winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Bahia in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 40% versus Bahia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 46% | Bahia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.83 xG and Bahia 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.069 / defence 0.824 | Bahia attack 1.110 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.070. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Palmeiras's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Palmeiras games / 52 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 56% | Draw 26% | Bahia 18%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Bahia 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 20% | Bahia 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 56% | Draw 26% | Bahia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Palmeiras 1.83 / Bahia 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.069 / def 0.824 | Bahia attack 1.110 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Bahia xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Bahia kick off?
Palmeiras vs Bahia kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Palmeiras 2 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Palmeiras vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Bahia part of?
Palmeiras vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 56% chance of winning, Bahia a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Palmeiras and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Bahia?
Record (4 meetings): Palmeiras 2W | Draws 1 | Bahia 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and Bahia in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Bahia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Palmeiras's attack rating (1.07) and Bahia's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
56%
1.80
26%
3.83
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.81
0.98
Bahia xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
3%
34.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.98 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palmeiras's recent record stands at 28W 13D 11L from 52 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 21L across 52 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bahia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Palmeiras have managed 18W 3D 5L from 26 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 5W 6D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palmeiras are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.40 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Bahia in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 28W 13D 11L in their last 52 games (1.87 PPG), while Bahia have gone 20W 11D 21L in their last 52 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Bahia away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.19 PPG; Bahia away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Bahia in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palmeiras and Bahia runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palmeiras's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
1
Draws
3
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Bahia?
From 9 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Bahia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Bahia?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 38%, Bahia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Palmeiras) and 58% (Bahia).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Bahia in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 54% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Palmeiras's recent games and 58% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Bahia tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bahia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Bahia 2-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.83 xG and Bahia 0.98 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bahia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.07 / defence 0.82 against Bahia attack 1.11 / defence 1.23, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 56% | Draw 26% | Bahia 18%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 46%, Bahia 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bahia's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.