Fortaleza EC 3-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Palmeiras at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Palmeiras at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A (matchday 12). Kick-off is Thursday 27 June 2024 at 02:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fortaleza EC stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Palmeiras have recorded 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palmeiras — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Fortaleza EC have won 2, Palmeiras 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Fortaleza EC 2–2 Palmeiras — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortaleza EC trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Palmeiras trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 47% versus Palmeiras 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 42% | Palmeiras 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fortaleza EC surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Palmeiras have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 0.78 xG and Palmeiras 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.900 / defence 0.823 | Palmeiras attack 1.297 / defence 0.653. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.084. Palmeiras bring a tight defence (rating 0.653, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Fortaleza EC's projected output down. Palmeiras have an above-average attack rating of 1.297, which lifts their away xG to 1.16. Data: built from Fortaleza EC's last 48 games and Palmeiras's last 49.
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 23% | Draw 34% | Palmeiras 43%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 4.39 | Draw 2.90 | Palmeiras 2.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fortaleza EC 60% (last 10 home games) | Palmeiras 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, matchday 12 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Thursday 27 June 2024 at 02:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 23% | Draw 34% | Palmeiras 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Fortaleza EC 0.78 / Palmeiras 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.900 / def 0.823 | Palmeiras attack 1.297 / def 0.653 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Palmeiras xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras FAQs
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras kicked off at 02:30 UK time on Thursday 27 June 2024 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Fortaleza EC 3 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras is a Serie A fixture (matchday 12) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 23% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 43% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (0.90) and Palmeiras's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fortaleza EC's last 48 games and Palmeiras's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
23%
4.39
34%
2.90
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
1.94
1.16
Palmeiras xG
4.39
23%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
7%
13.96
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 16.7 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.16 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 30W 19D 27L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 43W 22D 11L from 76 games, 1.99 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortaleza EC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 1.63 PPG from their last 38 home games (16W 14D 8L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 16W 16D 6L from their last 38 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.71 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
Fortaleza EC (Home) vs Palmeiras (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras Form FAQs
What form are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 30W 19D 27L in their last 76 games (1.43 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 43W 22D 11L in their last 76 (1.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.63 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 21 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Nov 2022, when Palmeiras won Palmeiras 4-0 Fortaleza EC.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fortaleza EC
3
Draws
4
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortaleza EC have won 3, Palmeiras have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 September 2025: Palmeiras 4-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 69% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 42%, Palmeiras 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Fortaleza EC) and 45% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Palmeiras in 40%; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 50% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 45% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 68% of Palmeiras's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortaleza EC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Palmeiras.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Palmeiras 3-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 0.78 xG and Palmeiras 1.16 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fortaleza EC beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palmeiras landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.90 / defence 0.82 against Palmeiras attack 1.30 / defence 0.65, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 23% | Draw 34% | Palmeiras 43%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Fortaleza EC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 42%, Palmeiras 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.43. Form was overturned, with Fortaleza EC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.