Fortaleza EC 2-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortaleza EC at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortaleza EC vs Juventude encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC and Juventude meet at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 June 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Fortaleza EC (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortaleza EC have posted 5W 3D 2L at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Juventude have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juventude haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Juventude have gone 0W 0D 10L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Fortaleza EC's 1.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Juventude's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Fortaleza EC 1W, Juventude 0W, 3D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Fortaleza EC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Juventude half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 47% versus Juventude 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 45% | Juventude 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 2.07 xG and Juventude 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.080 / defence 0.727 | Juventude attack 0.861 / defence 1.434. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.079. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.434 — this is suppressing Fortaleza EC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Fortaleza EC's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Fortaleza EC games / 11 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 68% | Draw 22% | Juventude 9%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | Juventude 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Fortaleza EC (68%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 60% | Juventude 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jun 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 68% | Draw 22% | Juventude 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 44% | xG Fortaleza EC 2.07 / Juventude 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.080 / def 0.727 | Juventude attack 0.861 / def 1.434 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Juventude xG
44%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Juventude kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Juventude kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 30 June 2024 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Juventude?
Fortaleza EC 2 - 1 Juventude.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Juventude part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 68% chance of winning, Juventude a 9% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Juventude?
Record (4 meetings): Fortaleza EC 1W | Draws 3 | Juventude 0W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Juventude in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Juventude (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (1.08) and Juventude's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.86x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
68%
1.46
22%
4.52
9%
10.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.74
0.68
Juventude xG
1.46
68%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
10.56
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
35%
2.87
1%
83.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.68 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Juventude?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 15W 9D 14L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Juventude's form line: 3W 13D 22L from 38 games, 0.58 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. Juventude haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Fortaleza EC are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Juventude.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 1.74 PPG from 19 outings (9W 6D 4L).
On the road, Juventude have gone 1W 4D 14L from 19 away games — 0.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.76 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Juventude
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Juventude in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Juventude have gone 3W 13D 22L in their last 38 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Juventude away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.74 PPG; Juventude away: 0.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fortaleza EC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortaleza EC won 5-0 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortaleza EC have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fortaleza EC
3
Draws
0
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Juventude?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 5, Juventude have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Juventude 1-2 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Juventude?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 47%, Juventude 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Fortaleza EC) and 53% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 32% of games; Juventude in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Juventude?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 47% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 53% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Juventude tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Juventude in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortaleza EC edge out Juventude 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Juventude 2-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 2.07 xG and Juventude 0.68 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.08 / defence 0.73 against Juventude attack 0.86 / defence 1.43, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 68% | Draw 22% | Juventude 9%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 45%, Juventude 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.58. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.