Bahia 2-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Vasco DA Gama travel to Arena Fonte Nova to take on Bahia. The game is scheduled for Thursday 27 June 2024, 01:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Vasco DA Gama have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vasco DA Gama — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bahia have won 1, Vasco DA Gama 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bahia in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 47% versus Vasco DA Gama 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 50% | Vasco DA Gama 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.74 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.165 / defence 0.807 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.722 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.084. Data: 49 Bahia games / 49 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 63% | Draw 26% | Vasco DA Gama 11%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.59 | Draw 3.85 | Vasco DA Gama 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (63%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasco DA Gama (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 40% | Vasco DA Gama 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Thursday 27 Jun 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 63% | Draw 26% | Vasco DA Gama 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 40% | xG Bahia 1.74 / Vasco DA Gama 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.165 / def 0.807 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.722 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Bahia (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Vasco DA Gama xG
40%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 27 June 2024 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Bahia 2 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 63% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 11% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bahia and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (2 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 1 | Vasco DA Gama 0W.
What form are Bahia and Vasco DA Gama in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.17) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
63%
1.59
26%
3.89
11%
8.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.38
0.63
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.59
63%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
8.70
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
33%
2.99
2%
49.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bahia and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Bahia and 0.63 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bahia come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 8D 18L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Vasco DA Gama sit at 1.18 PPG from 38 outings (12W 9D 17L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.16 PPG, Vasco DA Gama on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bahia's home form reads 8W 5D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasco DA Gama have taken 0.84 points per game from 19 outings (3W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bahia are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.08 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 12W 8D 18L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Bahia's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.53 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bahia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Bahia's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Bahia
1
Draws
2
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Vasco DA Gama?
From 7 meetings on record, Bahia have won 4, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Vasco DA Gama?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 58%, Vasco DA Gama 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Bahia) and 32% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Vasco DA Gama?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Bahia's games and 58% of Vasco DA Gama's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Bahia's recent games and 32% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out Vasco DA Gama 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Vasco DA Gama 2-1 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.74 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.63 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.17 / defence 0.81 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.72 / defence 1.13, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 63% | Draw 26% | Vasco DA Gama 11%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 50%, Vasco DA Gama 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.16 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.