Prachuap 3-2 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Ratchaburi travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Prachuap — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Prachuap 1.60 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Prachuap's 30% rate and Ratchaburi's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Prachuap, 3 for Ratchaburi and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 0–3 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (42 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (42 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 52% versus Ratchaburi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 45% | Ratchaburi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.91 xG and Ratchaburi 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.049 / defence 0.685 | Ratchaburi attack 0.907 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.782 / away 1.123. Prachuap's defence rating of 0.685 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Prachuap games / 42 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 64% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 11%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.56 | Draw 4.00 | Ratchaburi 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Prachuap are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 30% | Ratchaburi 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 64% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 45% | xG Prachuap 1.91 / Ratchaburi 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.049 / def 0.685 | Ratchaburi attack 0.907 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.782 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (64%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Ratchaburi xG
45%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Prachuap vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Prachuap 3 - 2 Ratchaburi.
Where is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi part of?
Prachuap vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 64% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 11% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Prachuap and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Ratchaburi?
Record (6 meetings): Prachuap 2W | Draws 1 | Ratchaburi 3W.
What form are Prachuap and Ratchaburi in?
Prachuap (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Prachuap's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
64%
1.56
25%
3.96
11%
9.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.60
0.70
Ratchaburi xG
1.56
64%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
9.31
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
32%
3.14
2%
62.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.70 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap's recent record stands at 13W 14D 15L from 42 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 17L across 42 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 1.26 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Prachuap have managed 11W 4D 4L from 19 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 3W 6D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.43 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 13W 14D 15L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 15W 10D 17L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Ratchaburi away?
Prachuap's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.95 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Ratchaburi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Prachuap
2
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-1 Prachuap.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 47%, Ratchaburi 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Prachuap) and 32% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Prachuap's recent matches and 37% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Prachuap's recent games and 32% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Prachuap edge out Ratchaburi 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Ratchaburi 3-2 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.91 xG and Ratchaburi 0.70 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Prachuap beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ratchaburi outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.05 / defence 0.69 against Ratchaburi attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 64% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 11%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 45%, Ratchaburi 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (42 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (42 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.26 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.