Prachuap 3-2 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 64% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Prachuap face Ratchaburi.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ratchaburi travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap in Thai League 1 (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Prachuap — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Prachuap's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Prachuap are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Ratchaburi have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Prachuap 1.60 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Prachuap's 30% BTTS rate and Ratchaburi's 20% (from Prachuap's last 10 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Prachuap, 3 for Ratchaburi and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 May 2024, ended Prachuap 0–3 Ratchaburi — a Ratchaburi win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 52% versus Ratchaburi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 45% | Ratchaburi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.91 xG and Ratchaburi 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.049 / defence 0.685 | Ratchaburi attack 0.907 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.782 / away 1.123. Prachuap have a tight defence (rating 0.685), which is pulling Ratchaburi's projected output down. Data: built from Prachuap's last 42 games and Ratchaburi's last 42.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 64% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 11%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.56 | Draw 3.96 | Ratchaburi 9.31. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (64%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Prachuap are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Prachuap's last 10 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Prachuap 30% (last 10 home games) | Ratchaburi 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 13 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 64% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Prachuap 1.91 / Ratchaburi 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.049 / def 0.685 | Ratchaburi attack 0.907 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.782 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Ratchaburi xG
45%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Prachuap vs Ratchaburi FAQs
What time does Prachuap vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Prachuap vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Prachuap 3 - 2 Ratchaburi.
Where is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi part of?
Prachuap vs Ratchaburi is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 13) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 64% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 11% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Prachuap and Ratchaburi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Prachuap vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Prachuap's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Prachuap's last 42 games and Ratchaburi's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
64%
1.56
25%
3.96
11%
9.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.60
0.70
Ratchaburi xG
1.56
64%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
9.31
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
32%
3.14
2%
62.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Prachuap vs Ratchaburi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.70 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap's recent record stands at 13W 14D 15L from 42 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 17L across 42 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 1.26 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Prachuap have managed 11W 4D 4L from their last 19 home games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 3W 6D 10L across their last 19 away games, a 0.79 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.43 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
Prachuap (Home) vs Ratchaburi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Prachuap
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Prachuap vs Ratchaburi Form FAQs
What form are Prachuap and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 13W 14D 15L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 15W 10D 17L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Ratchaburi away?
Prachuap's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.95 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won Prachuap 1-5 Ratchaburi.
Prachuap's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Prachuap
2
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Prachuap vs Ratchaburi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Ratchaburi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Prachuap have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Ratchaburi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Ratchaburi 1-1 Prachuap.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 80% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 47%, Ratchaburi 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Prachuap) and 32% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Prachuap vs Ratchaburi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Prachuap and Ratchaburi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Prachuap's recent matches and 37% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Prachuap and Ratchaburi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Prachuap's recent games and 32% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Ratchaburi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Prachuap's recent matches and 58% of Ratchaburi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Prachuap edge out Ratchaburi 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Ratchaburi 3-2 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.91 xG and Ratchaburi 0.70 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Prachuap beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ratchaburi outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.05 / defence 0.69 against Ratchaburi attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 64% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 11%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 45%, Ratchaburi 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (42 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (42 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.26 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.