Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Varbergs BoIS FC face Trelleborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Trelleborg make the trip to Varberg Energi Arena to face Varbergs BoIS FC in Superettan (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Monday 6 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Varbergs BoIS FC have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Trelleborg (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Trelleborg have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Varbergs BoIS FC, 1.60 for Trelleborg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Trelleborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 50% versus Trelleborg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 59% | Trelleborg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.21 xG and Trelleborg 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.957 / defence 1.151 | Trelleborg attack 0.857 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 0.909. Data: built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 5 games and Trelleborg's last 35.
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 42% | Draw 33% | Trelleborg 26%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.40 | Draw 3.06 | Trelleborg 3.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — low conviction — though recent form (Varbergs BoIS FC's last 10 home games and Trelleborg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Varbergs BoIS FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Trelleborg 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, matchday 6 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 42% | Draw 33% | Trelleborg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.21 / Trelleborg 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.957 / def 1.151 | Trelleborg attack 0.857 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.300 / away 0.909 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Trelleborg xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg FAQs
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 6 May 2024 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg?
Varbergs BoIS FC 0 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg is a Superettan fixture (matchday 6) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 42% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Trelleborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Varbergs BoIS FC's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (0.86x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 5 games and Trelleborg's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
42%
2.40
33%
3.06
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.11
0.90
Trelleborg xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
8%
13.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0.90 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Varbergs BoIS FC's recent record stands at 10W 7D 15L from 32 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Trelleborg, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 12L across 32 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Varbergs BoIS FC against 1.31 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Varbergs BoIS FC have managed 5W 5D 6L from their last 16 home games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trelleborg's away record stands at 5W 6D 5L across their last 16 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.31 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC (Home) vs Trelleborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg Form FAQs
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 10W 7D 15L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 11W 9D 12L in their last 32 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Trelleborg away?
Trelleborg's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.25 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Trelleborg, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 20 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Varbergs BoIS FC have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won Trelleborg 0-4 Varbergs BoIS FC on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Varbergs BoIS FC
0
Draws
1
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Trelleborg?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 3, Trelleborg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Trelleborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2025: Varbergs BoIS FC 3-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Trelleborg?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 38%, Trelleborg 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 50% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Trelleborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Varbergs BoIS FC and Trelleborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 69% of Trelleborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Varbergs BoIS FC and Trelleborg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 50% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Trelleborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 62% of Trelleborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trelleborg defy the odds to beat Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.21 xG and Trelleborg 0.90 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Trelleborg attack 0.86 / defence 0.97, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 42% | Draw 33% | Trelleborg 26%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Trelleborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 59%, Trelleborg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trelleborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.16 PPG, Trelleborg 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Trelleborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.