Osters IF 0-0 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs Gefle IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Gefle IF travel to Visma Arena to take on Osters IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 May 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osters IF stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Visma Arena, Osters IF have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena.
Across all Superettan games this season, Gefle IF have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gefle IF's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Osters IF have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Osters IF have won 0, Gefle IF 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Gefle IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Osters IF trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Gefle IF trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osters IF 67% and Gefle IF 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 70% | Gefle IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.38 xG and Gefle IF 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.073 / defence 0.894 | Gefle IF attack 0.945 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 0.874. Data: 35 Osters IF games / 35 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 51% | Draw 29% | Gefle IF 19%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Gefle IF 5.26. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Osters IF 40% | Gefle IF 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 51% | Draw 29% | Gefle IF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Osters IF 1.38 / Gefle IF 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.073 / def 0.894 | Gefle IF attack 0.945 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.296 / away 0.874 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Gefle IF xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Gefle IF kick off?
Osters IF vs Gefle IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Gefle IF?
Osters IF 0 - 0 Gefle IF.
Where is Osters IF vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Gefle IF part of?
Osters IF vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 51% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Osters IF and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Gefle IF?
Record (2 meetings): Osters IF 0W | Draws 0 | Gefle IF 2W.
What form are Osters IF and Gefle IF in?
Osters IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Gefle IF (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Osters IF's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Gefle IF's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Gefle IF's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
51%
1.94
29%
3.41
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.12
0.74
Gefle IF xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
5%
20.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.2 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.74 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osters IF come into this having played 30 games, going 16W 6D 8L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Gefle IF sit at 1.23 PPG from 30 outings (9W 10D 11L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-D across their last five.
Osters IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Gefle IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Osters IF's home form reads 9W 2D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Gefle IF have taken 0.80 points per game from 15 outings (2W 6D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gefle IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.20 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Current Season
Gefle IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 16W 6D 8L in their last 30 games (1.80 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Gefle IF away?
Osters IF's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.93 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Osters IF's record when hosting Gefle IF specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Osters IF
1
Draws
3
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Gefle IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 0, Gefle IF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2024, when Gefle IF 2-1 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Gefle IF?
Gefle IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 47%, Gefle IF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Osters IF) and 47% (Gefle IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Gefle IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Gefle IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Osters IF's recent matches and 60% of Gefle IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs Gefle IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Osters IF's matches and 47% of Gefle IF's.
Do Osters IF and Gefle IF tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Gefle IF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Osters IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 6, as Osters IF and Gefle IF drew 0-0 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.38 xG and Gefle IF 0.74 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Osters IF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.07 / defence 0.89 against Gefle IF attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 51% | Draw 29% | Gefle IF 19%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 70%, Gefle IF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Gefle IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Gefle IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.