Varbergs BoIS FC 1-3 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Varbergs BoIS FC face Orgryte IS.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC welcome Orgryte IS to Varberg Energi Arena in Superettan (matchday 7). Kick-off is Saturday 11 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Orgryte IS — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Orgryte IS's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Varbergs BoIS FC at 1.30 PPG versus Orgryte IS's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Orgryte IS trading profile (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 50% versus Orgryte IS 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 59% | Orgryte IS 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 0.91 xG and Orgryte IS 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.821 / defence 1.162 | Orgryte IS attack 0.938 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 0.908. Data: built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 6 games and Orgryte IS's last 36.
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 32% | Draw 32% | Orgryte IS 36%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 3.14 | Draw 3.10 | Orgryte IS 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Varbergs BoIS FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Orgryte IS 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, matchday 7 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 32% | Draw 32% | Orgryte IS 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 0.91 / Orgryte IS 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.821 / def 1.162 | Orgryte IS attack 0.938 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.290 / away 0.908 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Orgryte IS xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS FAQs
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS?
Varbergs BoIS FC 1 - 3 Orgryte IS.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS is a Superettan fixture (matchday 7) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 32% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Varbergs BoIS FC's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 6 games and Orgryte IS's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
32%
3.14
32%
3.10
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
1.90
0.99
Orgryte IS xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 14.7 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0.99 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Varbergs BoIS FC come into this having played 32 games, going 10W 7D 15L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.19 PPG from 32 outings (10W 8D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.16 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Varbergs BoIS FC's home form reads 5W 5D 6L across their last 16 home games, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 16 away games (6W 2D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.09 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC (Home) vs Orgryte IS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS Form FAQs
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 10W 7D 15L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 10W 8D 14L in their last 32 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Orgryte IS away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.25 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from May 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 2 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Orgryte IS have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 May 2025, when Orgryte IS won Orgryte IS 5-1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Varbergs BoIS FC
1
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 0, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2025: Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 38%, Orgryte IS 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 44% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 31%; Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 44% of games; Orgryte IS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Orgryte IS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 44% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 44% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Orgryte IS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 75% of Orgryte IS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-3 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 0.91 xG and Orgryte IS 0.99 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Orgryte IS outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Orgryte IS attack 0.94 / defence 0.86, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 32% | Draw 32% | Orgryte IS 36%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 59%, Orgryte IS 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.16 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.