Damac 2-2 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Damac at 45%, yet in-form Al Riyadh provide a compelling counter-argument — this Damac vs Al Riyadh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Damac host Al Riyadh at Dhamak Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 2). Kick-off is Thursday 17 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Damac — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Damac's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 1 matches, Al Riyadh stand at 1W 0D 0L — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Riyadh — 2.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.48 xG and Al Riyadh 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.903 / defence 1.044 | Al Riyadh attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.274. Data: built from Damac's last 31 games and Al Riyadh's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Damac 45% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 29%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.22 | Draw 3.86 | Al Riyadh 3.44. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Riyadh (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Damac's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 1 games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (Damac 31 games, Al Riyadh 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 2 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 17 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 45% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Damac 1.48 / Al Riyadh 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.903 / def 1.044 | Al Riyadh attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Damac (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Al Riyadh xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Damac vs Al Riyadh FAQs
What time does Damac vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Damac vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Thursday 17 August 2023 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Riyadh?
Damac 2 - 2 Al Riyadh.
Where is Damac vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Riyadh part of?
Damac vs Al Riyadh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 2) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 45% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Damac and Al Riyadh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Damac vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.90x the league average against Al Riyadh's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Damac's last 31 games and Al Riyadh's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.86
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Damac xG
Total xG
2.61
1.13
Al Riyadh xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
7%
15.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Damac vs Al Riyadh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Damac and 1.13 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Damac come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L.
On the other side, Al Riyadh sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five.
Al Riyadh carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Damac have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Al Riyadh in 0%.
Defensively: Al Riyadh in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Early Season
Al Riyadh
Early Season
Damac (Home) vs Al Riyadh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Damac
Early Season
Al Riyadh
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Damac vs Al Riyadh Form FAQs
What form are Damac and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Damac or Al Riyadh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al Riyadh in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 5 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Mar 2026, when Damac won Damac 3-0 Al Riyadh.
Damac's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Damac
4
Draws
1
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Damac vs Al Riyadh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Riyadh?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Damac have won 1, Al Riyadh have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Riyadh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 March 2026: Damac 3-0 Al Riyadh.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Damac vs Al Riyadh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Damac and Al Riyadh matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Damac's recent matches and 0% of Al Riyadh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Damac and Al Riyadh matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Damac's recent games and 0% of Al Riyadh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Riyadh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 0% of Damac's recent matches and 100% of Al Riyadh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al Riyadh share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac and Al Riyadh finished level at 2-2 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.48 xG and Al Riyadh 1.13 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Riyadh outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against Al Riyadh attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Damac 45% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 29%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 0%, Al Riyadh 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Riyadh arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Damac scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Riyadh scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.