Abha 1-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Abha face Al-Raed.

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Full Analysis

Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Abha versus Al-Raed in Pro League (matchday 2). Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Abha have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Abha's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Abha are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Raed's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al-Raed away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Abha against 0.90 for Al-Raed. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Abha's last 10 home games and Al-Raed's last 10 away games) — Abha have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al-Raed in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2023, ended Abha 1–3 Al-Raed — a Al-Raed win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Abha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Al-Raed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 58% versus Al-Raed 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Abha 68% | Al-Raed 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.50 xG and Al-Raed 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.996 / defence 1.166 | Al-Raed attack 0.981 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.415. Data: built from Abha's last 31 games and Al-Raed's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Abha 35% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 41%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.82 | Draw 4.21 | Al-Raed 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.50 / 1.62) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Abha's last 10 home games and Al-Raed's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Abha 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Raed 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Abha 31 games, Al-Raed 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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