Al-Raed 0-3 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (41%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Raed face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 1). Kick-off is Monday 14 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Raed at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Al-Raed's games and 60% of Al-Ittihad FC's (from Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Al-Ittihad FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Al-Raed.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 23 Feb 2023, ended Al-Raed 0–0 Al-Ittihad FC — a draw.
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 60% versus Al-Ittihad FC 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 70% | Al-Ittihad FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.40 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 1.081 / defence 1.047 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.226 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.208. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.226, which lifts their away xG to 1.55. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 30 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 34% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.91 | Draw 4.08 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Al-Raed 30 games, Al-Ittihad FC 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 1 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 14 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 34% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Al-Raed 1.40 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 1.081 / def 1.047 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.226 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al-Ittihad FC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC FAQs
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 14 August 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Raed 0 - 3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 1) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 34% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Raed's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Raed's last 30 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
34%
2.91
24%
4.08
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.95
1.55
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
7%
13.73
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.55 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Raed come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 7D 14L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.40 PPG from 30 outings (22W 6D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.27 PPG clear of Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Raed's home form reads 5W 3D 7L across their last 15 home games, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 2.27 points per game from their last 15 away games (10W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.00 scored and 0.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Raed have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 63% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Pre-Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Pre-Season
Al-Raed (Home) vs Al-Ittihad FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Raed
Pre-Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Pre-Season
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 22W 6D 2L in their last 30 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.20 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.27 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 63%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 15 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad FC have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Aug 2021, when Al-Ittihad FC won Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al-Raed.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
1
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Raed have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 May 2025: Al-Raed 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 60%, Al-Ittihad FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Raed and 67% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 47%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Ittihad FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Raed's games and 53% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Raed's matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Ittihad FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 73% of Al-Ittihad FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Raed 0-3 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.40 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.23 / defence 0.87, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 34% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 41%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 70%, Al-Ittihad FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.