Vitesse 1-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Volendam make the trip to GelreDome to face Vitesse in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 February 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Vitesse (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's home record at GelreDome: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
FC Volendam's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.40 PPG for Vitesse against 0.40 for FC Volendam. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vitesse lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Vitesse winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vitesse — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 46% versus FC Volendam 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 53% | FC Volendam 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.42 xG and FC Volendam 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.699 / defence 0.950 | FC Volendam attack 0.920 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.437. Vitesse's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Vitesse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Vitesse games / 55 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 39% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 32%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | FC Volendam 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitesse are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitesse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 40% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 39% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Vitesse 1.42 / FC Volendam 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.699 / def 0.950 | FC Volendam attack 0.920 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.26
FC Volendam xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs FC Volendam kick off?
Vitesse vs FC Volendam kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Vitesse 1 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Vitesse vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs FC Volendam part of?
Vitesse vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 39% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Vitesse and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and FC Volendam?
Record (3 meetings): Vitesse 1W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Vitesse and FC Volendam in?
Vitesse (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.70x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.92x) against Vitesse's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
39%
2.56
29%
3.40
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.67
1.26
FC Volendam xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
8%
13.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Vitesse and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.26 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vitesse come into this having played 55 games, going 13W 13D 29L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 0.87 PPG from 55 outings (13W 9D 33L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Vitesse against 0.87 for FC Volendam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vitesse's home form reads 6W 9D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.44 points per game from 27 outings (2W 6D 19L). That's a step down from their 0.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vitesse are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.16 scored and 2.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 13W 13D 29L in their last 55 games (0.95 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 13W 9D 33L in their last 55 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or FC Volendam away?
Vitesse's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Volendam have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-0 on 17 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Vitesse
2
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 1, FC Volendam have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2025, when FC Volendam 4-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 44%, FC Volendam 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Vitesse) and 70% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vitesse have failed to score in 37% of games; FC Volendam in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Vitesse's recent matches and 63% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitesse vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Vitesse's matches and 70% of FC Volendam's.
Do Vitesse and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitesse and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse and FC Volendam finished level at 1-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.42 xG and FC Volendam 1.26 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.70 / defence 0.95 against FC Volendam attack 0.92 / defence 1.28, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 39% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 32%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 53%, FC Volendam 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 0.95 PPG, FC Volendam 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.