Heracles 3-2 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Erve Asito plays host to Heracles versus Vitesse in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Heracles have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heracles have posted 3W 2D 5L at Erve Asito — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vitesse's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Vitesse have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Heracles, 0.40 for Vitesse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Heracles lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Vitesse winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Heracles — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Vitesse — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 57% versus Vitesse 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 74% | Vitesse 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.82 xG and Vitesse 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.789 / defence 1.400 | Vitesse attack 0.645 / defence 1.472. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.432. Heracles's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Vitesse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.472 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Heracles games / 54 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 48% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 25%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Vitesse 4.00. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heracles if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 70% | Vitesse 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 48% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Heracles 1.82 / Vitesse 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.789 / def 1.400 | Vitesse attack 0.645 / def 1.472 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Heracles (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Vitesse xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Vitesse kick off?
Heracles vs Vitesse kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Vitesse?
Heracles 3 - 2 Vitesse.
Where is Heracles vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Vitesse part of?
Heracles vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 48% chance of winning, Vitesse a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Heracles and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Vitesse?
Record (3 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 2W.
What form are Heracles and Vitesse in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Vitesse (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Heracles's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Vitesse's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (0.65x) against Heracles's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.63
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.12
1.29
Vitesse xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
4%
24.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Heracles and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Heracles and 1.29 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Heracles's recent record stands at 29W 7D 18L from 54 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 28L across 54 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Heracles by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 17W 4D 6L from 27 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 7W 4D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Heracles are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.07 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 29W 7D 18L in their last 54 games (1.74 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 13W 13D 28L in their last 54 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Vitesse away?
Heracles's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.04 PPG; Vitesse away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Heracles
1
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, Heracles have won 1, Vitesse have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Heracles 3-2 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 56%, Vitesse 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Heracles and 59% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Heracles's recent matches and 44% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Heracles's matches and 59% of Vitesse's.
Do Heracles and Vitesse tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Heracles edge out Vitesse 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Vitesse 3-2 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.82 xG and Vitesse 1.29 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.79 / defence 1.40 against Vitesse attack 0.65 / defence 1.47, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 48% | Draw 28% | Vitesse 25%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 74%, Vitesse 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.