PEC Zwolle 0-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAC³PARK Stadion plays host to PEC Zwolle versus Almere City FC in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MAC³PARK Stadion, PEC Zwolle have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Almere City FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for PEC Zwolle, 1.20 for Almere City FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: PEC Zwolle 2W, Almere City FC 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
PEC Zwolle half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 58% versus Almere City FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 66% | Almere City FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.26 xG and Almere City FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.714 / defence 1.150 | Almere City FC attack 0.685 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.432. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 PEC Zwolle games / 21 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 37% | Draw 33% | Almere City FC 30%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Almere City FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 50% | Almere City FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 37% | Draw 33% | Almere City FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.26 / Almere City FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.714 / def 1.150 | Almere City FC attack 0.685 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Almere City FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
PEC Zwolle 0 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 37% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC?
Record (3 meetings): PEC Zwolle 2W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 0W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.71) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.69x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
37%
2.73
33%
3.00
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.39
1.13
Almere City FC xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.13 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 34W 10D 15L from 59 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 28W 15D 16L across 59 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.68 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 18W 4D 7L from 29 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 15W 6D 8L across 29 trips, a 1.76 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.37 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 34W 10D 15L in their last 59 games (1.90 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 28W 15D 16L in their last 59 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Almere City FC away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 2.00 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.76 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
PEC Zwolle
2
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 3, Almere City FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Almere City FC 2-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 55%, Almere City FC 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (PEC Zwolle) and 38% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Almere City FC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 45% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 38% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat PEC Zwolle 0-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.26 xG and Almere City FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PEC Zwolle fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.71 / defence 1.15 against Almere City FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.09, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 37% | Draw 33% | Almere City FC 30%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 66%, Almere City FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Almere City FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.90 PPG, Almere City FC 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.