GO Ahead Eagles 1-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees PEC Zwolle travel to De Adelaarshorst to take on GO Ahead Eagles. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024, 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GO Ahead Eagles stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GO Ahead Eagles's home record at De Adelaarshorst: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: GO Ahead Eagles 1.50 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. GO Ahead Eagles register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, PEC Zwolle in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for GO Ahead Eagles, 0 for PEC Zwolle and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
GO Ahead Eagles trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
PEC Zwolle trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GO Ahead Eagles 56% versus PEC Zwolle 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GO Ahead Eagles 52% | PEC Zwolle 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GO Ahead Eagles 1.84 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.132 / defence 1.114 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.189 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.580 / away 1.439. Data: 54 GO Ahead Eagles games / 20 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 36% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 39%. Fair-value odds: GO Ahead Eagles 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | PEC Zwolle 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GO Ahead Eagles 60% | PEC Zwolle 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: De Adelaarshorst • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 36% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 73% | xG GO Ahead Eagles 1.84 / PEC Zwolle 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.132 / def 1.114 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.189 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.580 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Expected Goals
1.91
PEC Zwolle xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at De Adelaarshorst.
What was the final score in GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
GO Ahead Eagles 1 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at De Adelaarshorst.
What competition is GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle part of?
GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives GO Ahead Eagles a 36% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle?
Record (3 meetings): GO Ahead Eagles 2W | Draws 1 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle in?
GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GO Ahead Eagles's attack rating (1.13) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus GO Ahead Eagles's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
36%
2.75
25%
4.01
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Total xG
3.75
1.91
PEC Zwolle xG
2.75
36%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.76
Clean Sheet
15%
6.72
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
5%
18.50
6%
16.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.91 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GO Ahead Eagles come into this having played 54 games, going 18W 16D 20L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. The sample for GO Ahead Eagles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.83 PPG from 54 outings (30W 9D 15L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of GO Ahead Eagles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
GO Ahead Eagles's home form reads 12W 8D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 1.74 points per game from 27 outings (14W 5D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
GO Ahead Eagles are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 2.11 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
GO Ahead Eagles have gone 18W 16D 20L in their last 54 games (1.30 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 30W 9D 15L in their last 54 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GO Ahead Eagles at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PEC Zwolle's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GO Ahead Eagles at home: 1.63 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.74 PPG.
Have GO Ahead Eagles or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
GO Ahead Eagles have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
GO Ahead Eagles have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Apr 2026, when GO Ahead Eagles won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GO Ahead Eagles's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
GO Ahead Eagles
4
Draws
0
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, GO Ahead Eagles have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when GO Ahead Eagles 5-0 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle?
GO Ahead Eagles have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GO Ahead Eagles 56%, PEC Zwolle 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for GO Ahead Eagles and 74% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GO Ahead Eagles keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GO Ahead Eagles home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GO Ahead Eagles play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of GO Ahead Eagles's games and 63% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of GO Ahead Eagles's matches and 74% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
GO Ahead Eagles have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 21, as GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 1.84 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.91 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. GO Ahead Eagles fell 0.8 short of their projected output. PEC Zwolle landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.13 / defence 1.11 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.19 / defence 1.03, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 36% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 39%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 52%, PEC Zwolle 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.