De Graafschap 2-2 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 78% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Jong Utrecht travel to Stadion De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie (matchday 37). The game is scheduled for Friday 3 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, De Graafschap have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, De Graafschap have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jong Utrecht stand at 0W 1D 9L — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
When travelling, Jong Utrecht have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for De Graafschap, 1 for Jong Utrecht and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2023, ended De Graafschap 0–2 Jong Utrecht — a Jong Utrecht win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 55% versus Jong Utrecht 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 61% | Jong Utrecht 46%). Note also that Jong Utrecht surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while De Graafschap recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.79 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.192 / defence 0.833 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.700 / defence 1.424. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.373. Jong Utrecht's defence rating of 1.424 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing De Graafschap's projected output up. Jong Utrecht's attack rating of 0.700 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from De Graafschap's last 74 games and Jong Utrecht's last 74.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 78% | Draw 15% | Jong Utrecht 7%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.28 | Draw 6.71 | Jong Utrecht 13.76. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (78%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (De Graafschap's last 10 home games and Jong Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: De Graafschap 50% (last 10 home games) | Jong Utrecht 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 37 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 78% | Draw 15% | Jong Utrecht 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG De Graafschap 2.79 / Jong Utrecht 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.192 / def 0.833 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.700 / def 1.424 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.79
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Jong Utrecht xG
52%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht FAQs
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 3 May 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
De Graafschap 2 - 2 Jong Utrecht.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 37) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 78% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 7% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.19x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 2.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from De Graafschap's last 74 games and Jong Utrecht's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
78%
1.28
15%
6.71
7%
13.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.79
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.59
0.80
Jong Utrecht xG
1.28
78%
Home win
6.71
15%
Draw
13.76
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
6%
16.25
Win to Nil
35%
2.86
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.79 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.80 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 34W 12D 28L from 74 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 46L across 74 games — 0.70 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 21W 5D 11L from their last 37 home games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 3W 5D 29L across their last 37 away games, a 0.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.84 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
De Graafschap (Home) vs Jong Utrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
De Graafschap
Current Season
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
❓ De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht Form FAQs
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 34W 12D 28L in their last 74 games (1.54 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 16D 46L in their last 74 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong Utrecht away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.84 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
De Graafschap have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
4
Draws
1
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, De Graafschap have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: De Graafschap 2-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 46%, Jong Utrecht 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (De Graafschap) and 65% (Jong Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Jong Utrecht in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 51% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 51% of De Graafschap's matches and 65% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 84% of Jong Utrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 37, as De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.79 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.80 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jong Utrecht outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.19 / defence 0.83 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.70 / defence 1.42, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 78% | Draw 15% | Jong Utrecht 7%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 78%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 61%, Jong Utrecht 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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