Roda 2-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Roda at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Roda and Cambuur meet at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Roda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Roda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambuur (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Roda's 2.20 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Cambuur's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Roda have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Cambuur in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Roda, 0 for Cambuur and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Roda — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Cambuur — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 61% versus Cambuur 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 53% | Cambuur 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.16 xG and Cambuur 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.139 / defence 0.815 | Cambuur attack 0.937 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.373. Data: 74 Roda games / 36 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 62% | Draw 22% | Cambuur 16%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Cambuur 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Roda (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Roda 70% | Cambuur 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 62% | Draw 22% | Cambuur 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Roda 2.16 / Cambuur 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.139 / def 0.815 | Cambuur attack 0.937 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Roda (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Cambuur xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Cambuur kick off?
Roda vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Cambuur?
Roda 2 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is Roda vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Cambuur part of?
Roda vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 62% chance of winning, Cambuur a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Roda and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Cambuur?
Record (1 meetings): Roda 0W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are Roda and Cambuur in?
Roda (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Cambuur (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Roda's attack at 1.14x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.94x) against Roda's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.51
16%
6.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Roda xG
Total xG
3.21
1.05
Cambuur xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
6.15
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
12%
8.65
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
2%
53.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Roda and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Roda and 1.05 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 70 outings, Roda have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 29W 19D 22L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Cambuur's form line: 18W 11D 41L from 70 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambuur.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.86 PPG from 35 outings (19W 8D 8L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 9W 6D 20L from 35 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.37 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
Cambuur
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 29W 19D 22L in their last 70 games (1.51 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 18W 11D 41L in their last 70 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Cambuur away?
Roda's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.86 PPG; Cambuur away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Roda
4
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Roda have won 1, Cambuur have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Cambuur 1-1 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 66%, Cambuur 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Roda and 66% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Roda's games and 60% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Roda's matches and 66% of Cambuur's.
Do Roda and Cambuur tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Cambuur 2-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.16 xG and Cambuur 1.05 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cambuur landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.14 / defence 0.81 against Cambuur attack 0.94 / defence 1.15, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 62% | Draw 22% | Cambuur 16%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 53%, Cambuur 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.