Telstar 1-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Telstar host Groningen at 711 Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at 711 Stadion, Telstar have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Groningen have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Groningen — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Telstar, 1 for Groningen and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Groningen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Telstar in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Groningen in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 51% versus Groningen 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 47% | Groningen 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.13 xG and Groningen 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 1.114 / defence 1.065 | Groningen attack 1.195 / defence 0.620. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.373. Groningen's defence strength of 0.620 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 74 Telstar games / 36 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 23% | Draw 26% | Groningen 50%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Groningen 2.00. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 80% | Groningen 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Groningen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 23% | Draw 26% | Groningen 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Telstar 1.13 / Groningen 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 1.114 / def 1.065 | Groningen attack 1.195 / def 0.620 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Groningen (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Groningen xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Groningen kick off?
Telstar vs Groningen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 May 2024 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Groningen?
Telstar 1 - 1 Groningen.
Where is Telstar vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Groningen part of?
Telstar vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 23% chance of winning, Groningen a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Telstar and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Groningen?
Record (1 meetings): Telstar 0W | Draws 0 | Groningen 1W.
What form are Telstar and Groningen in?
Telstar (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Groningen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Telstar's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (0.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
23%
4.29
26%
3.79
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Telstar xG
Total xG
2.88
1.75
Groningen xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
17%
5.74
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
4%
24.63
16%
6.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Telstar and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Telstar and 1.75 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Telstar's recent record stands at 22W 17D 31L from 70 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 31L across 70 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Telstar on 1.19 PPG, Groningen on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Telstar have managed 14W 9D 12L from 35 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Groningen's away record stands at 11W 6D 18L across 35 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.41 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Current Season
Groningen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Groningen in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 22W 17D 31L in their last 70 games (1.19 PPG), while Groningen have gone 25W 14D 31L in their last 70 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Groningen away?
Telstar's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.46 PPG; Groningen away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Groningen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Telstar's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Telstar
1
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Groningen?
From 4 meetings on record, Telstar have won 0, Groningen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Telstar 0-2 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 60%, Groningen 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Telstar) and 54% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 26% of games; Groningen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Groningen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Telstar's recent matches and 49% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Telstar vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Telstar's recent games and 54% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Telstar and Groningen tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Groningen in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Telstar and Groningen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 37, as Telstar and Groningen drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.13 xG and Groningen 1.75 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.11 / defence 1.06 against Groningen attack 1.20 / defence 0.62, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 23% | Draw 26% | Groningen 50%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 47%, Groningen 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.19 PPG, Groningen 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.