Holstein Kiel 1-0 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Holstein Kiel face FC Schalke 04.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel host FC Schalke 04 at Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 11 February 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Holstein Kiel — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Holstein Kiel have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Schalke 04 stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Schalke 04's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Holstein Kiel) versus 1.60 (FC Schalke 04). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Holstein Kiel's last 10 home games and FC Schalke 04's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Holstein Kiel have won 1, FC Schalke 04 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2023, ended Holstein Kiel 2–0 FC Schalke 04 — a Holstein Kiel win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Holstein Kiel in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 72% and FC Schalke 04 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Holstein Kiel 68% | FC Schalke 04 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 2.62 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 1.118 / defence 1.165 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.900 / defence 1.431. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.383. FC Schalke 04's defence rating of 1.431 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Holstein Kiel's projected output up. Data: built from Holstein Kiel's last 54 games and FC Schalke 04's last 20.
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 62% | Draw 18% | FC Schalke 04 20%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 1.60 | Draw 5.59 | FC Schalke 04 5.09. The model has a clear lean to Holstein Kiel (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 4.07. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.07 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (2.62 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.07 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Holstein Kiel's last 10 home games and FC Schalke 04's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Holstein Kiel 80% (last 10 home games) | FC Schalke 04 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 62% | Draw 18% | FC Schalke 04 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% (Under 23%) | BTTS Yes 71% (No 29%) | xG Holstein Kiel 2.62 / FC Schalke 04 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 1.118 / def 1.165 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.900 / def 1.431 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.45
FC Schalke 04 xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 FAQs
What time does Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 0 FC Schalke 04.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 62% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 20% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Holstein Kiel's attack rating (1.12) and FC Schalke 04's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Holstein Kiel's last 54 games and FC Schalke 04's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.4%), 1-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
62%
1.60
18%
5.59
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
4.07
1.45
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.60
62%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
7%
13.72
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
1%
69.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.45 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 4.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 23W 13D 18L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
FC Schalke 04's form line: 14W 12D 28L from 54 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Holstein Kiel are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Schalke 04.
Venue Form
On home soil, Holstein Kiel have posted 1.41 PPG from their last 27 home games (11W 5D 11L).
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 4W 6D 17L from their last 27 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.26 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
Holstein Kiel (Home) vs FC Schalke 04 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Holstein Kiel
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 Form FAQs
What form are Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 23W 13D 18L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 14W 12D 28L in their last 54 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.41 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 15 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Aug 2021, when FC Schalke 04 won Holstein Kiel 0-3 FC Schalke 04.
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
2
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Holstein Kiel have won 3, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2026: Holstein Kiel 1-2 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Holstein Kiel at 82%, FC Schalke 04 at 52%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Holstein Kiel and 59% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Holstein Kiel's games and 52% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 59% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 67% of FC Schalke 04's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out FC Schalke 04 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat FC Schalke 04 1-0 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 2.62 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.45 xG, a combined 4.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Holstein Kiel fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC Schalke 04 landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.12 / defence 1.17 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.90 / defence 1.43, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 62% | Draw 18% | FC Schalke 04 20%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 68%, FC Schalke 04 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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