1. FC Magdeburg 1-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Holstein Kiel at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Holstein Kiel make the trip to MDCC-Arena to face 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Friday 2 February 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg at MDCC-Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — 1. FC Magdeburg are significantly better at MDCC-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Holstein Kiel have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Holstein Kiel have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Holstein Kiel are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Magdeburg lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 4–2 with 1. FC Magdeburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Holstein Kiel — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 62% and Holstein Kiel 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Magdeburg 60% | Holstein Kiel 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.43 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.067 / defence 1.041 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.085 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.373. Data: 53 1. FC Magdeburg games / 53 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 35% | Draw 24% | Holstein Kiel 41%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Holstein Kiel 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 80% | Holstein Kiel 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 2 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 35% | Draw 24% | Holstein Kiel 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.43 / Holstein Kiel 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.067 / def 1.041 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.085 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Holstein Kiel xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 2 February 2024 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?
1. FC Magdeburg 1 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 35% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 2W | Draws 0 | Holstein Kiel 1W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Magdeburg's attack rating (1.07) and Holstein Kiel's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Holstein Kiel's attack (1.08x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
35%
2.85
24%
4.11
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.98
1.55
Holstein Kiel xG
2.85
35%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
7%
13.43
10%
10.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.55 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 18W 12D 23L from 53 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Holstein Kiel, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 18L across 53 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.53 for Holstein Kiel. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 10W 6D 10L from 26 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Holstein Kiel's away record stands at 12W 7D 7L across 26 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.75 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Holstein Kiel in 72%.
Last 53 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 games (1.25 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 23W 12D 18L in their last 53 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Holstein Kiel's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.38 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
1. FC Magdeburg
2
Draws
1
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, Holstein Kiel have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Holstein Kiel 1-3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel?
1. FC Magdeburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 65%, Holstein Kiel 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 62% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 62% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 62% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 20, as 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.43 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.55 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.08 / defence 0.82, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 35% | Draw 24% | Holstein Kiel 41%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 60%, Holstein Kiel 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.25 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.