Amiens 1-1 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Concarneau at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Concarneau encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amiens host Concarneau at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2 (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 25 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Amiens stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Amiens's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Concarneau — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Concarneau have posted 3W 1D 3L from their last 7 away outings — 1.43 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Concarneau — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Amiens in-play tendencies (last 13 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Concarneau in-play tendencies (last 13 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 38% of Amiens's games and 31% of Concarneau's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amiens 38% | Concarneau 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.07 xG and Concarneau 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.850 / defence 1.019 | Concarneau attack 0.926 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.178. Data: built from Amiens's last 52 games and Concarneau's last 13.
Result probabilities: Amiens 34% | Draw 29% | Concarneau 36%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.90 | Draw 3.42 | Concarneau 2.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Concarneau are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Concarneau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Amiens 60% (last 10 home games) | Concarneau 14% (last 7 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 15 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 34% | Draw 29% | Concarneau 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Amiens 1.07 / Concarneau 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.850 / def 1.019 | Concarneau attack 0.926 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Concarneau (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Concarneau xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Amiens vs Concarneau FAQs
What time does Amiens vs Concarneau kick off?
Amiens vs Concarneau kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Concarneau?
Amiens 1 - 1 Concarneau.
Where is Amiens vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Concarneau part of?
Amiens vs Concarneau is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 15) (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 34% chance of winning, Concarneau a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Concarneau the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Amiens and Concarneau will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Amiens vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Amiens's attack rating (0.85) and Concarneau's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Concarneau's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Amiens's last 52 games and Concarneau's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Concarneau Win
34%
2.90
29%
3.42
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.19
1.11
Concarneau xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
12%
8.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Amiens vs Concarneau Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Amiens and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Amiens and 1.11 for Concarneau, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 4W 4D 5L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Concarneau's form line: 5W 3D 5L from 13 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.23 PPG, Concarneau on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 7 home games (2W 3D 2L).
On the road, Concarneau have gone 3W 1D 3L from their last 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Amiens are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 1.08 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Concarneau
Blended
Amiens (Home) vs Concarneau (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Amiens
Blended
Concarneau
Blended
❓ Amiens vs Concarneau Form FAQs
What form are Amiens and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Concarneau away?
Concarneau's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.29 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Amiens or Concarneau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Concarneau in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Amiens
2
Draws
0
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Amiens vs Concarneau H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Concarneau?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Amiens have won 0, Concarneau have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Concarneau last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2024: Concarneau 0-0 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 57%, Concarneau 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Amiens) and 43% (Concarneau).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Concarneau in 43%; Amiens have failed to score in 43% of games; Concarneau in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Amiens vs Concarneau Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Amiens and Concarneau matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Amiens's recent matches and 14% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Amiens and Concarneau matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Amiens's recent games and 43% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Amiens and Concarneau share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens and Concarneau finished level at 1-1 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.07 xG and Concarneau 1.11 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Concarneau attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 34% | Draw 29% | Concarneau 36%, with Concarneau to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 38%, Concarneau 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Concarneau's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.23 PPG, Concarneau 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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