Amiens 1-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Amiens and Saint Etienne meet at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Amiens have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Amiens are significantly better at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne than their overall form suggests.
Saint Etienne (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Saint Etienne are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Amiens have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Saint Etienne in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Amiens 0W, Saint Etienne 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 49% versus Saint Etienne 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 42% | Saint Etienne 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.19 xG and Saint Etienne 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.864 / defence 1.024 | Saint Etienne attack 1.062 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.149. Data: 53 Amiens games / 53 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 35% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 38%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Saint Etienne 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Amiens 60% | Saint Etienne 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 35% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Amiens 1.19 / Saint Etienne 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.864 / def 1.024 | Saint Etienne attack 1.062 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Saint Etienne xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Amiens vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Saint Etienne?
Amiens 1 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Amiens vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Saint Etienne part of?
Amiens vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 35% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Amiens and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Saint Etienne?
Record (2 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 1 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are Amiens and Saint Etienne in?
Amiens (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Amiens's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (1.06x) against Amiens's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
35%
2.88
27%
3.65
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.44
1.25
Saint Etienne xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
12%
8.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Amiens and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Amiens and 1.25 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Amiens's recent record stands at 18W 13D 22L from 53 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 22W 14D 17L across 53 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Amiens against 1.51 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 9W 7D 10L from 26 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 9W 8D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amiens are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.49 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 18W 13D 22L in their last 53 games (1.26 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 22W 14D 17L in their last 53 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.31 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Amiens or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Saint Etienne have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 5-0 on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Amiens
1
Draws
3
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Amiens have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Saint Etienne 5-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amiens see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 50%, Saint Etienne 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Amiens) and 62% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Amiens's games and 73% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Amiens vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Amiens's recent games and 62% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Amiens defy the odds to beat Saint Etienne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Saint Etienne 1-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.19 xG and Saint Etienne 1.25 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Saint Etienne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against Saint Etienne attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 35% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 38%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Amiens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 42%, Saint Etienne 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.26 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.