Concarneau 1-2 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Concarneau vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Concarneau host PAU at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Concarneau stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Concarneau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Concarneau's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
PAU — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, PAU have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Concarneau at 1.80 PPG versus PAU's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Concarneau in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
PAU in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 36% versus PAU 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Concarneau 36% | PAU 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.44 xG and PAU 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.929 / defence 1.236 | PAU attack 1.204 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.146. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Concarneau's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. PAU have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 Concarneau games / 52 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Concarneau 32% | Draw 24% | PAU 44%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | PAU 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Concarneau 50% | PAU 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 32% | Draw 24% | PAU 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Concarneau 1.44 / PAU 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 0.929 / def 1.236 | PAU attack 1.204 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: PAU (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
1.71
PAU xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Concarneau vs PAU kick off?
Concarneau vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs PAU?
Concarneau 1 - 2 PAU.
Where is Concarneau vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Concarneau vs PAU part of?
Concarneau vs PAU is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 32% chance of winning, PAU a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Concarneau and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Concarneau vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and PAU?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Concarneau and PAU in?
Concarneau (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. PAU (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Concarneau's attack rating (0.93) and PAU's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Concarneau's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
32%
3.08
24%
4.19
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Concarneau xG
Total xG
3.15
1.71
PAU xG
3.08
32%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
6%
16.97
10%
9.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Concarneau and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Concarneau and 1.71 for PAU, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Concarneau come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 4D 5L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Concarneau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.57 PPG from 14 outings (6W 4D 4L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Concarneau on 1.36 PPG, PAU on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Concarneau's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Concarneau are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.79 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Concarneau and PAU in coming into this match?
Concarneau have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 games (1.36 PPG), while PAU have gone 6W 4D 4L in their last 14 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Concarneau at home or PAU away?
Concarneau's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Concarneau at home: 1.33 PPG; PAU away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Concarneau and PAU runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Concarneau
0
Draws
2
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and PAU?
From 2 meetings on record, Concarneau have won 0, PAU have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Concarneau and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when PAU 2-0 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Concarneau and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Concarneau 50%, PAU 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Concarneau) and 83% (PAU). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Concarneau have failed to score in 50% of games; PAU in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Concarneau play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Concarneau's games and 67% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Concarneau vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Concarneau's matches and 83% of PAU's.
Do Concarneau and PAU tend to score early?
Concarneau have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, PAU in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Concarneau 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Concarneau 1-2 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 1.44 xG and PAU 1.71 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 0.93 / defence 1.24 against PAU attack 1.20 / defence 1.21, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 32% | Draw 24% | PAU 44%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Concarneau 36%, PAU 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Concarneau's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
PAU's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Concarneau 1.36 PPG, PAU 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.