Everton 1-3 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 50%, yet in-form West Ham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Everton vs West Ham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Everton welcome West Ham to Goodison Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton at Goodison Park this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Everton are significantly better at Goodison Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, West Ham have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, West Ham have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. West Ham's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Everton's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Everton, 3 for West Ham and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Everton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
West Ham in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 44% versus West Ham 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 44% | West Ham 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.59 xG and West Ham 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.786 / defence 0.838 | West Ham attack 0.788 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.557. Everton's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Everton games / 64 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 50% | Draw 26% | West Ham 24%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | West Ham 4.17. Everton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form West Ham (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Everton 50% | West Ham 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 50% | Draw 26% | West Ham 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Everton 1.59 / West Ham 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.786 / def 0.838 | West Ham attack 0.788 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.557 • Poisson stance: Everton (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.03
West Ham xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs West Ham kick off?
Everton vs West Ham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs West Ham?
Everton 1 - 3 West Ham.
Where is Everton vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs West Ham part of?
Everton vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 50% chance of winning, West Ham a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Everton and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and West Ham?
Record (5 meetings): Everton 2W | Draws 0 | West Ham 3W.
What form are Everton and West Ham in?
Everton (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. West Ham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.79) and West Ham's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, West Ham's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.79
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Everton xG
Total xG
2.62
1.03
West Ham xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
5%
20.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Everton and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Everton and 1.03 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton come into this having played 64 games, going 16W 19D 29L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.23 PPG from 64 outings (22W 13D 29L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.05 PPG, West Ham on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Everton's home form reads 9W 7D 16L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 0.91 points per game from 32 outings (8W 5D 19L).
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.28 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
West Ham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and West Ham in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 16W 19D 29L in their last 64 games (1.05 PPG), while West Ham have gone 22W 13D 29L in their last 64 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or West Ham away?
Everton's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.06 PPG; West Ham away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Everton's record when hosting West Ham specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton
3
Draws
5
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and West Ham?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 2, West Ham have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when West Ham 2-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and West Ham?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 41%, West Ham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Everton) and 56% (West Ham).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 31% of games; West Ham in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play West Ham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Everton's recent matches and 50% of West Ham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Everton's recent games and 56% of West Ham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
West Ham cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Everton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Everton 1-3 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.59 xG and West Ham 1.03 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. West Ham outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.79 / defence 0.84 against West Ham attack 0.79 / defence 1.19, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 50% | Draw 26% | West Ham 24%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a West Ham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 44%, West Ham 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
West Ham's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.05 PPG, West Ham 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.