Tottenham 3-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Tottenham (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Tottenham face Crystal Palace.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Tottenham welcome Crystal Palace to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Tottenham have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tottenham's home record at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crystal Palace stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Tottenham carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Tottenham register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Crystal Palace in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Tottenham hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 1 for Crystal Palace, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Tottenham winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Tottenham and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Tottenham in-play and half-time data (63 games, 32 at home): BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Crystal Palace in-play and half-time data (63 games, 32 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tottenham 70% and Crystal Palace 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 68% | Crystal Palace 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 2.25 xG and Crystal Palace 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 1.109 / defence 1.003 | Crystal Palace attack 0.781 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.557. Data: 63 Tottenham games / 64 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 60% | Draw 21% | Crystal Palace 19%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Crystal Palace 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Tottenham (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tottenham at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tottenham 90% | Crystal Palace 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 60% | Draw 21% | Crystal Palace 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Tottenham 2.25 / Crystal Palace 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 1.109 / def 1.003 | Crystal Palace attack 0.781 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.557 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Crystal Palace xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Crystal Palace?
Tottenham 3 - 1 Crystal Palace.
Where is Tottenham vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Crystal Palace part of?
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 60% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Tottenham and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Crystal Palace?
Record (5 meetings): Tottenham 4W | Draws 0 | Crystal Palace 1W.
What form are Tottenham and Crystal Palace in?
Tottenham (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Crystal Palace (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tottenham's attack rating (1.11) and Crystal Palace's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
60%
1.66
21%
4.86
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Tottenham xG
Total xG
3.47
1.22
Crystal Palace xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
11%
9.49
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
2%
49.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.22 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Crystal Palace?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Tottenham have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 32W 11D 20L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crystal Palace's form line: 18W 19D 26L from 63 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Tottenham are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crystal Palace.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Tottenham have posted 2.00 PPG from 32 outings (21W 1D 10L).
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 7W 9D 16L from 32 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tottenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tottenham are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.13 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 32W 11D 20L in their last 63 games (1.70 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 18W 19D 26L in their last 63 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Crystal Palace away?
Tottenham's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 2.00 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tottenham and Crystal Palace runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2023, when Tottenham won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tottenham's record when hosting Crystal Palace specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Tottenham
0
Draws
4
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Crystal Palace?
From 10 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 6, Crystal Palace have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2026, when Tottenham 1-3 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Crystal Palace?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tottenham 69%, Crystal Palace 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Tottenham) and 44% (Crystal Palace). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play Crystal Palace?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Tottenham's games and 50% of Crystal Palace's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tottenham vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Tottenham's matches and 44% of Crystal Palace's.
Tottenham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Crystal Palace.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat Crystal Palace 3-1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 2.25 xG and Crystal Palace 1.22 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.11 / defence 1.00 against Crystal Palace attack 0.78 / defence 1.19, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 60% | Draw 21% | Crystal Palace 19%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 68%, Crystal Palace 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Tottenham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.