West Ham 2-2 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Ham at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Ham vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
West Ham and Burnley meet at London Stadium in Premier League (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
West Ham (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
West Ham's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Burnley's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Burnley have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. West Ham's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Burnley's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for West Ham, 0 for Burnley and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended West Ham 2–1 Burnley — a West Ham win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
West Ham — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Burnley — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 51% versus Burnley 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 51% | Burnley 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 2.01 xG and Burnley 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 1.004 / defence 1.057 | Burnley attack 0.717 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.573. Burnley's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Data: built from West Ham's last 65 games and Burnley's last 27.
Result probabilities: West Ham 56% | Draw 22% | Burnley 22%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 1.79 | Draw 4.47 | Burnley 4.59. The model has a clear lean to West Ham (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.01 / 1.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates West Ham as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (West Ham's last 10 home games and Burnley's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: West Ham 50% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 56% | Draw 22% | Burnley 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG West Ham 2.01 / Burnley 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 1.004 / def 1.057 | Burnley attack 0.717 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.573 • Poisson stance: West Ham (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Burnley xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ West Ham vs Burnley FAQs
What time does West Ham vs Burnley kick off?
West Ham vs Burnley kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Burnley?
West Ham 2 - 2 Burnley.
Where is West Ham vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Burnley part of?
West Ham vs Burnley is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 56% chance of winning, Burnley a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both West Ham and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will West Ham vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
West Ham's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.72x) against West Ham's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from West Ham's last 65 games and Burnley's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.47
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.20
1.19
Burnley xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
3%
34.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ West Ham vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are West Ham and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for West Ham and 1.19 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
West Ham's recent record stands at 23W 13D 29L from 65 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 29W 14D 22L across 65 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for West Ham against 1.55 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, West Ham have managed 14W 8D 10L from their last 32 home games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 13W 9D 10L across their last 32 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
West Ham are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.51 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Burnley
Blended
West Ham (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
West Ham
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ West Ham vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are West Ham and Burnley in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 23W 13D 29L in their last 65 games (1.26 PPG), while Burnley have gone 29W 14D 22L in their last 65 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Burnley away?
West Ham's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.56 PPG; Burnley away: 1.50 PPG.
Have West Ham or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Ham have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Burnley in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between West Ham and Burnley, the earliest from December 2021. They cover more than one competition — Premier League, Championship. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Ham have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
West Ham
4
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ West Ham vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Burnley?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, West Ham have won 3, Burnley have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Burnley 2-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Burnley?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 50%, Burnley 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (West Ham) and 53% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: West Ham keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ West Ham vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in West Ham and Burnley matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of West Ham's recent matches and 59% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are West Ham and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of West Ham's recent games and 53% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Ham and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of West Ham's recent matches and 69% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Ham and Burnley share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at London Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as West Ham and Burnley drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 2.01 xG and Burnley 1.19 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Burnley attack 0.72 / defence 1.18, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 56% | Draw 22% | Burnley 22%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 51%, Burnley 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.26 PPG, Burnley 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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