Sunderland 1-5 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 40 as Sunderland welcome Blackburn to Stadium of Light. Kick-off is set for Monday 1 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sunderland — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sunderland have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadium of Light — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sunderland are significantly better at Stadium of Light than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Blackburn have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Championship this season, Blackburn have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sunderland at 0.80 PPG versus Blackburn's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sunderland have won 2, Blackburn 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Blackburn in-play and half-time data (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 54% versus Blackburn 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 53% | Blackburn 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.56 xG and Blackburn 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.971 / defence 0.933 | Blackburn attack 0.867 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.209. Data: 85 Sunderland games / 85 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 51% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 24%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Blackburn 4.17. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 40% | Blackburn 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 51% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Sunderland 1.56 / Blackburn 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.971 / def 0.933 | Blackburn attack 0.867 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Blackburn xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Blackburn kick off?
Sunderland vs Blackburn kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Sunderland 1 - 5 Blackburn.
Where is Sunderland vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Blackburn part of?
Sunderland vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 51% chance of winning, Blackburn a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sunderland and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Blackburn?
Record (3 meetings): Sunderland 2W | Draws 0 | Blackburn 1W.
What form are Sunderland and Blackburn in?
Sunderland (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Blackburn (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 0.97x the league average against Blackburn's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 85/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
51%
1.96
25%
3.94
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.54
0.98
Blackburn xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
5%
20.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.98 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sunderland's recent record stands at 33W 20D 32L from 85 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Blackburn, meanwhile, have gone 31W 18D 36L across 85 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.40 PPG, Blackburn on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 18W 9D 15L from 42 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackburn's away record stands at 12W 9D 21L across 42 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sunderland are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.21 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 85 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Blackburn
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 33W 20D 32L in their last 85 games (1.40 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 31W 18D 36L in their last 85 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Blackburn away?
Sunderland's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.50 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sunderland and Blackburn runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2024, when Blackburn won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sunderland's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
1
Draws
3
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Blackburn?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 2, Blackburn have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Blackburn?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 57%, Blackburn 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Sunderland and 60% for Blackburn. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Blackburn in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Sunderland's recent matches and 45% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sunderland's matches and 60% of Blackburn's.
Do Sunderland and Blackburn tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Blackburn run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Sunderland.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Sunderland 1-5 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.56 xG and Blackburn 0.98 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Blackburn outscored their 0.98 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against Blackburn attack 0.87 / defence 1.20, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 51% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 24%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Blackburn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 53%, Blackburn 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Blackburn's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.40 PPG, Blackburn 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Blackburn (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.