Coventry 1-2 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Coventry at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coventry face Cardiff.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Coventry welcome Cardiff to The Coventry Building Society Arena in Championship (matchday 40). Kick-off is Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Coventry — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Coventry's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Cardiff have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cardiff's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Coventry at 1.70 PPG versus Cardiff's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Coventry, 2 for Cardiff and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2023, ended Coventry 2–3 Cardiff — a Cardiff win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Coventry in-play tendencies (last 85 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Cardiff in-play tendencies (last 85 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 48% versus Cardiff 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 44% | Cardiff 40%). Note also that Cardiff surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Coventry recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 1.72 xG and Cardiff 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 1.150 / defence 0.978 | Cardiff attack 0.818 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.209. Data: built from Coventry's last 84 games and Cardiff's last 85.
Result probabilities: Coventry 55% | Draw 24% | Cardiff 21%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 1.81 | Draw 4.21 | Cardiff 4.75. The model has a clear lean to Coventry (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coventry are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Coventry's last 10 home games and Cardiff's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Coventry 50% (last 10 home games) | Cardiff 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, matchday 40 | Venue: The Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 55% | Draw 24% | Cardiff 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Coventry 1.72 / Cardiff 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 1.150 / def 0.978 | Cardiff attack 0.818 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Coventry (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cardiff xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coventry vs Cardiff FAQs
What time does Coventry vs Cardiff kick off?
Coventry vs Cardiff kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 1 April 2024 at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs Cardiff?
Coventry 1 - 2 Cardiff.
Where is Coventry vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs Cardiff part of?
Coventry vs Cardiff is a Championship fixture (matchday 40) (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 55% chance of winning, Cardiff a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Coventry the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Coventry and Cardiff will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Coventry vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Coventry's attack at 1.15x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Coventry's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Coventry's last 84 games and Cardiff's last 85 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coventry Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.21
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Coventry xG
Total xG
2.69
0.97
Cardiff xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
4%
26.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coventry vs Cardiff Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Coventry and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Coventry and 0.97 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs Cardiff?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Coventry come into this having played 85 games, going 35W 29D 21L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Cardiff sit at 1.20 PPG from 85 outings (29W 15D 41L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coventry on 1.58 PPG, Cardiff on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Coventry's home form reads 19W 17D 6L across their last 42 home games, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Cardiff have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 42 away games (14W 5D 23L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coventry come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Coventry are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 0.99 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 85 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
Coventry (Home) vs Cardiff (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coventry
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Coventry vs Cardiff Form FAQs
What form are Coventry and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 35W 29D 21L in their last 85 games (1.58 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 29W 15D 41L in their last 85 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or Cardiff away?
Coventry's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 1.76 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Coventry or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Cardiff in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 1 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Coventry's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Coventry
3
Draws
3
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Coventry vs Cardiff H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Cardiff?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Coventry have won 2, Cardiff have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Coventry and Cardiff last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 January 2025: Cardiff 1-1 Coventry.
Who has won more matches between Coventry and Cardiff?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 45%, Cardiff 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Coventry) and 48% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Cardiff in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Coventry vs Cardiff Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Coventry and Cardiff matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Coventry's recent matches and 38% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Coventry and Cardiff matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Coventry's recent games and 48% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coventry and Cardiff matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Coventry's recent matches and 64% of Cardiff's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cardiff defy the odds to beat Coventry 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Coventry 1-2 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.72 xG and Cardiff 0.97 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cardiff outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against Cardiff attack 0.82 / defence 1.11, drawn from 84/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 55% | Draw 24% | Cardiff 21%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Cardiff win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 44%, Cardiff 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Cardiff's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coventry 1.58 PPG, Cardiff 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.98 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.98 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 40
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →