Plymouth 0-1 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bristol City at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Bristol City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plymouth host Bristol City at Home Park in Championship (matchday 40). Kick-off is Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Plymouth have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Plymouth are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bristol City — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bristol City's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bristol City's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Plymouth's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Plymouth's games and 70% of Bristol City's (from Plymouth's last 10 home games and Bristol City's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Plymouth have won 0, Bristol City 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2023, ended Plymouth 1–4 Bristol City — a Bristol City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (last 85 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 45%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Bristol City in-play and half-time data (last 85 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 55% versus Bristol City 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 58% | Bristol City 39%). Note also that Bristol City surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Plymouth recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 45% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.46 xG and Bristol City 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.006 / defence 1.382 | Bristol City attack 0.921 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.209. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.382 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bristol City's projected output up. Data: built from Plymouth's last 39 games and Bristol City's last 85.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 36% | Draw 24% | Bristol City 40%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.77 | Draw 4.12 | Bristol City 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.46 / 1.54) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bristol City at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bristol City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Plymouth's last 10 home games and Bristol City's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plymouth 60% (last 10 home games) | Bristol City 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, matchday 40 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 36% | Draw 24% | Bristol City 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Plymouth 1.46 / Bristol City 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.006 / def 1.382 | Bristol City attack 0.921 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Bristol City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Bristol City xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plymouth vs Bristol City FAQs
What time does Plymouth vs Bristol City kick off?
Plymouth vs Bristol City kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 1 April 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Bristol City?
Plymouth 0 - 1 Bristol City.
Where is Plymouth vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Bristol City part of?
Plymouth vs Bristol City is a Championship fixture (matchday 40) (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 36% chance of winning, Bristol City a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bristol City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Plymouth and Bristol City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plymouth vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (1.01) and Bristol City's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bristol City's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plymouth's last 39 games and Bristol City's last 85 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bristol City Win
36%
2.77
24%
4.12
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.00
1.54
Bristol City xG
2.77
36%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
8%
12.90
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plymouth vs Bristol City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.54 for Bristol City, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Bristol City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 85 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 41W 19D 25L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Bristol City's form line: 29W 22D 34L from 85 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.67 PPG, Bristol City on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 2.12 PPG from their last 42 home games (28W 5D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bristol City have gone 11W 12D 19L from their last 42 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.15 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 85 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Bristol City
Current Season
Plymouth (Home) vs Bristol City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plymouth
Current Season
Bristol City
Current Season
❓ Plymouth vs Bristol City Form FAQs
What form are Plymouth and Bristol City in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 41W 19D 25L in their last 85 games (1.67 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 29W 22D 34L in their last 85 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Bristol City away?
Plymouth's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.12 PPG; Bristol City away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Bristol City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bristol City in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 1 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Nov 2024, when Bristol City won Bristol City 4-0 Plymouth.
Plymouth's record when hosting Bristol City specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Plymouth
1
Draws
3
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ Plymouth vs Bristol City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Bristol City?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Plymouth have won 0, Bristol City have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Bristol City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 January 2025: Plymouth 2-2 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Bristol City?
Bristol City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 50%, Bristol City 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Plymouth) and 43% (Bristol City).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bristol City in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plymouth vs Bristol City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plymouth and Bristol City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Plymouth's recent matches and 55% of Bristol City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plymouth and Bristol City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Plymouth's recent games and 43% of Bristol City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Bristol City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Plymouth's recent matches and 67% of Bristol City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bristol City edge out Plymouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bristol City beat Plymouth 0-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.46 xG and Bristol City 1.54 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.01 / defence 1.38 against Bristol City attack 0.92 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 36% | Draw 24% | Bristol City 40%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 58%, Bristol City 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Bristol City's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.67 PPG, Bristol City 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Bristol City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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