QPR 2-1 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Rotherham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 34 as QPR welcome Rotherham to MATRADE Loftus Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, QPR have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
QPR's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at MATRADE Loftus Road this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rotherham stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Rotherham have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
On current form, QPR have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, QPR have won 0, Rotherham 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
QPR trading profile (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Rotherham trading profile (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 47% versus Rotherham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 47% | Rotherham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.77 xG and Rotherham 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.862 / defence 1.059 | Rotherham attack 0.821 / defence 1.490. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.260. Rotherham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.490 — this is suppressing QPR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 79 QPR games / 79 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 53% | Draw 23% | Rotherham 23%. Fair-value odds: QPR 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Rotherham 4.35. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: QPR 50% | Rotherham 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Rotherham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 53% | Draw 23% | Rotherham 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG QPR 1.77 / Rotherham 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.862 / def 1.059 | Rotherham attack 0.821 / def 1.490 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: QPR (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Rotherham xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Rotherham kick off?
QPR vs Rotherham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Rotherham?
QPR 2 - 1 Rotherham.
Where is QPR vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Rotherham part of?
QPR vs Rotherham is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 53% chance of winning, Rotherham a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both QPR and Rotherham will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Rotherham?
Record (3 meetings): QPR 0W | Draws 2 | Rotherham 1W.
What form are QPR and Rotherham in?
QPR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Rotherham (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
QPR's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Rotherham's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Rotherham's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 79/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.28
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
QPR xG
Total xG
2.87
1.10
Rotherham xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
17%
5.90
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
4%
25.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are QPR and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for QPR and 1.10 for Rotherham, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Rotherham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
QPR's recent record stands at 21W 19D 39L from 79 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Rotherham, meanwhile, have gone 14W 27D 38L across 79 games — 0.87 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.04 PPG, Rotherham on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, QPR have managed 9W 10D 20L from 39 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rotherham's away record stands at 2W 15D 22L across 39 trips, a 0.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, QPR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
QPR are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 0.99 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 79 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Rotherham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Rotherham in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 21W 19D 39L in their last 79 games (1.04 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 14W 27D 38L in their last 79 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Rotherham away?
QPR's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 0.95 PPG; Rotherham away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between QPR and Rotherham runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
QPR's record when hosting Rotherham specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
QPR
2
Draws
1
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Rotherham?
From 4 meetings on record, QPR have won 1, Rotherham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Rotherham last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when QPR 2-1 Rotherham.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 51%, Rotherham 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (QPR) and 46% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: QPR have failed to score in 38% of games; Rotherham in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Rotherham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of QPR's recent matches and 41% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Rotherham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of QPR's recent games and 46% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Rotherham tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Rotherham in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Rotherham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Rotherham 2-1 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.77 xG and Rotherham 1.10 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Rotherham attack 0.82 / defence 1.49, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 53% | Draw 23% | Rotherham 23%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 47%, Rotherham 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Rotherham's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.04 PPG, Rotherham 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.