Cardiff 2-1 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stoke City at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cardiff face Stoke City.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cardiff and Stoke City meet at Cardiff City Stadium in Championship (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Cardiff (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Cardiff's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stoke City have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Stoke City's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Cardiff edge it 1 wins to 0, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Cardiff 0–0 Stoke City — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cardiff — key trading statistics (last 79 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 51% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Stoke City — key trading statistics (last 79 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 42% versus Stoke City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 40% | Stoke City 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.06 xG and Stoke City 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.678 / defence 1.051 | Stoke City attack 0.950 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.260. Cardiff's attack rating of 0.678 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Cardiff's last 79 games and Stoke City's last 79.
Result probabilities: Cardiff 31% | Draw 28% | Stoke City 41%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 3.21 | Draw 3.57 | Stoke City 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stoke City are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stoke City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cardiff 20% (last 10 home games) | Stoke City 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, matchday 34 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 31% | Draw 28% | Stoke City 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Cardiff 1.06 / Stoke City 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.678 / def 1.051 | Stoke City attack 0.950 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Stoke City xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cardiff vs Stoke City FAQs
What time does Cardiff vs Stoke City kick off?
Cardiff vs Stoke City kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Stoke City?
Cardiff 2 - 1 Stoke City.
Where is Cardiff vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Stoke City part of?
Cardiff vs Stoke City is a Championship fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 31% chance of winning, Stoke City a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cardiff and Stoke City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Cardiff vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cardiff's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Stoke City's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Stoke City's attack (0.95x) against Cardiff's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Cardiff's last 79 games and Stoke City's last 79 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
31%
3.21
28%
3.57
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.32
1.26
Stoke City xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cardiff vs Stoke City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.26 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 79 outings, Cardiff have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 25W 15D 39L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Stoke City's form line: 23W 19D 37L from 79 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Cardiff against 1.11 for Stoke City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 1.18 PPG from their last 39 home games (12W 10D 17L).
On the road, Stoke City have gone 12W 10D 17L from their last 39 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cardiff are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.08 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 79 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Stoke City
Current Season
Cardiff (Home) vs Stoke City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cardiff
Current Season
Stoke City
Current Season
❓ Cardiff vs Stoke City Form FAQs
What form are Cardiff and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 25W 15D 39L in their last 79 games (1.14 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 23W 19D 37L in their last 79 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Stoke City away?
Cardiff's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.18 PPG; Stoke City away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 8 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cardiff have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stoke City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cardiff
6
Draws
1
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Cardiff vs Stoke City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Stoke City?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Cardiff have won 2, Stoke City have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Stoke City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 September 2026: Cardiff 1-1 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Stoke City?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 44%, Stoke City 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Cardiff) and 44% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cardiff have failed to score in 31% of games; Stoke City in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cardiff vs Stoke City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cardiff and Stoke City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cardiff's recent matches and 51% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cardiff and Stoke City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Cardiff's recent games and 44% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Stoke City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 51% of Cardiff's recent matches and 82% of Stoke City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cardiff defy the odds to beat Stoke City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Stoke City 2-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.06 xG and Stoke City 1.26 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cardiff beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.68 / defence 1.05 against Stoke City attack 0.95 / defence 1.13, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 31% | Draw 28% | Stoke City 41%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Cardiff win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 40%, Stoke City 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Stoke City's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.14 PPG, Stoke City 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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